Why Iraq Is In Civil War

Observing the apparent collapse of Iraq. It has occurred to me that the coverage of this by the Western press is not adequate. Unless you truly understand Islamic internal politics, you have no chance of understanding the ISIS military offensive in Iraq.

OK, deep breath. I will explain such to the best of my knowledge.

There are 3, irreconcilable forces in Islam: Sunni, Shia, and Kurd. All countries and armies and forces and terrorist groups are one of these, and there are no “moderates” who straddle more than one of these. Never the twain shall meet. When Khameni says “death to America”, he means it literally. He shall personally stick a knife in my or your back given half a chance (even though I am neither Christian nor Jewish).

Nevertheless, Islam views Western Christians as the “great unwashed masses”, who are not civilized and have never had the glory of hearing the true words of Allah. A Muslim views someone who is a member of a different Muslim sect as an apostate, a truly great sin an order of magnitude worse than being a Jew or Christian. Even in Christianity, in the New Testament, apostasy is the only unforgivable sin. In other words, you have heard the true word and have turned your back on same.

Next, let us review the Muslim political map of Iraq. From Baghdad and going south, Iraq is Shia. Northwest of Baghdad is Sunni. Northeast is Kurdistan, a semi-autonomous Kurdish province of Iraq that is giving the surrounding Shia and Sunni countries a bad case of heartburn.

Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq and was Ba'ath, which is Sunni. He was from the Sunni Northwest. Sunnis are in the minority, and he suppressed the Kurds in the Northeast and Shia in the South. Bush militarily invaded and toppled Hussein. He installed a majority Shia government, that is al-Maliki. In turn, he is oppressing the Sunnis and Kurds. ISIS is a Sunni force starting in the Northwest and heading south towards Shia Baghdad.

Now, from this viewpoint, the Sunni ISIS victories in Shia Iraq (al-Maliki) is simply another chapter in the never ending Muslim civil war. The more things change, the more they stay the same. It is not beyond the pale to think that ISIS has backing from Turkey (Sunni) and Saudi Arabia (Sunni).

Iraq – The Next Generation

It is difficult for me to imagine that the current change in Iraq has any geopolitical significance. Yes, I know: Iraq exports 3m bbl of oil per day, but much of it goes to China. ISIS, if it conquers the Shia south with its oil wells, has no intention of allowing export of oil. Still, does it matter to the West if the government of Iraq believes that the true inheritance of Mohammad are his descendants (Shia) or the religious council that he appointed (Sunni)? ICYW, most Muslims globally are Sunni.   

Dear President Putin, It Is All Your Fault [an open letter]

Ummm...Vlad, can I speak to you for a minute (may I call you Vlad? I hope so, cuz I know that you can use a friend right now)?

I know that, right now, you are having problems in Ukraine. But, you know, you have no one to blame but yourself.

I understand very well that you have great feelings for Ukraine. You view her as really a part of Russia. I know a wee bit of history, and I can say that I empathize. You want her back, and I do not blame you for your this.

I also understand very well that from your point of view, everything worth doing is done from the top down, not from the bottom up. Clapping someone on the shoulder and treating him to a brewskie and a bowl of nachos is not your style, but there is an old saying that you can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. Sometimes, it is easier to get someone to do what you want by tickling and teasing her rather than by hitting her over the head with a 2-by-4.

OK, now look what you have done. You want Ukraine snuggled in your arms like a little girl, but instead, she has fled into the arms of her new boyfriend (EU economic pact). You stole her purse (Crimea), and are trying to hack into her bank account (Eastern Ukraine). Did you really think that she would react any other way? You want her notes to you to say “xoxoxo”, not “f*ck u”.

Dude, it is never too late to kiss and make up. Give her back her purse, and take out some loose bills in your pocket to put into her bank account (cancel the debt to Gazprom and pay generous compensation to the families of every person who has been killed in Ukraine). Take her horseback riding, or at least for a ride in one of those nifty new tanks (T99). But, for cryin' out loud, wear a shirt.

Well, I hafta take a leak. Good luck, dude.

China's Strategic Military Mistake?

Far be it for me to defend Communist Chinese military aggression, but I wonder.

The Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Chinese Party (PSCCCP) sure looks like they have miscalculated. Buzzing Japanese surveillance planes, and playing chicken with US Navy vessels. Violating the economic zone of her neighbors. This belligerence seems to have provoked a defense league. Countries that have never had anything to do with one another (India, Vietnam, Japan, Philippines) are now cooperating for the first time in history.

Think for a moment: Communist China is pumping oil from Africa, Iraq, and (potentially) Canada. Add in the recent deal to import natural gas from Russia. All of the ocean territory seized by CC have one thing in common: oil. CC is resource hungry.

I believe that the motivating force behind CC foreign policy is the same one that motivated Bush-the-son's:

oil

It made for messy and difficult foreign policy, and it could be that CC is going down the same road. If so, it will lead to equally tragic consequences.

OK, this is my analysis. May I go out and play now?

What Really Happened in Benghazi?

To review, the US Embassy in Benghazi was attacked by Jihadists. 4 Americans were killed, including the ambassador. The attack went on for 12 hours, but there was no military response or attempt to rescue. There is a new book, Dark Forces by Timmerman, that presents a new viewpoint.

Whenever something bad happens, say a terrorist attack on a US embassy, all sorts of machinery goes into motion automatically. None of these occurred in Benghazi. The thought was that O issued a stand-down order, as such a lack of response could only have come from the West Wing. This book says that this did not occur. Rather, O never gave the green light.

It seems that Hillary Clinton, then SecState, was the one who gave numerous stand-down orders, suppressing any sort of US response by intelligence forces, military, or whatever. She was also the one who invented the fiction that the terrorist attack was caused by a goofy YouTube video that no one saw.

OK, put yourself in O's shoes. There is a serious terrorist attack, and it is your big chance to come to the rescue and be hailed by the press as a hero. However, you have a doofus SecState issuing all manner of stand-down orders saying everything is alright and that things are under control. Under these circumstances, it is understandable that O never gave the green light. It also means that the other suspicion, that Valerie Jarrett was responsible, may not be true either.

This book may not be true, but it makes more sense than the current theories buzzing around like a fly in an empty room. There is certainly another shoe to drop in this puzzling case, and this book may or not be it. Nevertheless, it warrants your attention.  

The Iraqi Army Collapses: Muslim Armageddon? ISIS?

OK, we have Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) wreaking havoc in Iraq. It is quite surprising, and very dangerous. Keep in mind that, at this point, we are still in the fog-of-war. We do not know all the facts, and should not pass judgment just yet. I should say that all of this is downright nonsensical.

What we have is an apparently invincible force. This obscure group has blitzkrieged its way through Iraq in a way that would make the Nazi Army proud. They have rapidly and easily captured city after city heading south towards Baghdad. They now posses American military hardware, not to mention $100s millions of captured moola. They are ruthless and bloodthirsty, executing “enemies” left and right in cold-blood. 4 American-trained divisions (I have also heard that 2 divisions) of the Iraqi Army simply melted away: they threw down their uniforms and guns and hardware, and simply ran. Civilians are fleeing in their wake, creating a huge refugee problem for neighboring countries, especially Kurdistan in the northeast.

On the other hand, the videos I have seen show what seems to be gang-bangers, not an organized force of seasoned, regular military. They are riding around in the backs of pickup trucks waving rifles and flying the black flag. This might a case of the civil war in Syria spilling over into Iraq, but they crossed the border from Turkey (Sunni). They seem to be Sunnis (shades of Saudi Arabia Wahhabism), heading for the Samarra Dome, a cherished symbol of Shia, so this might be the start of the penultimate Shia-Sunni war. ICYW, Saddam was a Sunni (from northwest Iraq) suppressing a mostly Shia Iraq; the US installed a Shia government (al-Maliki). Qudz, the Iranian security force, seems to be in Baghdad to shore up municipal defenses. I have heard the chair of the House Armed Services Committee state that the reason ISIS is advancing unchecked is that the Iraqi Army does not have US air cover, meaning that ISIS can operate in the open, during daylight, with impunity. Perhaps.

Something is not right about this picture, but I cannot quite put my finger on it. To misquote The Bard, something's rotten in the state of Denmark. Stay tuned, folks: microwave another bag of popcorn, and open a fresh brewskie. This is gonna be a long one.  

Eminent Domain: 3,777 Years of Private Property Rights Go "poof"

I believe the excerpts below are self-explanatory, and require no commentary on my part. 

Code of Hammurabi (1772 BC)

7. If any one buy from the son or the slave of another man, without witnesses or a contract, silver or gold, a male or female slave, an ox or a sheep, an ass or anything, or if he take it in charge, he is considered a thief and shall be put to death.

Magna Carta (1215)

28. No constable or other bailiff of ours shall take corn or other provisions from any one without immediately tendering money therefor, unless he can have postponement thereof by permission of the seller.

...

31. Neither we nor our bailiffs shall take, for our castles or for any other work of ours, wood which is not ours, against the will of the owner of that wood.

US Constitution , Amendment V (1797)

No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offence to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.

Kelo v. City of New London (2005)

"Under the banner of economic development, all private property is now vulnerable to being taken and transferred to another private citizen, so long as it is to be upgraded...in the process." (Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Conner, minority opinion).  

Celebrate Good Times! Greatest Tea Party Victory Ever!

Any number of “moderate” political commentators have said the last rites over the corpse of the Tea Party (are you listening, Mr. “B”?). Today, an unknown political rookie from the Tea Party buried Cantor, the House Majority Leader, in the Republican primary in a surprise landslide. It is not often that such a powerful (#2 position in the House hierarchy, if I am not mistaken) incumbent loses in a primary in such spectacular fashion, but it is significant that this occurred in a Republican primary rather than a Democratic one.

The primary:

7th district, Republican primary, Virginia

With 97.5% of precincts reporting:

Brat 55.5%

Cantor 44.5%

Yes, this qualifies as an old-fashioned landslide.

Those of you who are scowling and frowning, I suggest you smile. The Tea Party should not get cocky, but we could be witnessing the dawn of a new era in American politics. It shows that Republicans are not such dumb, gullible lemmings who will vote for anyone whose only qualification is being “electable” (are you listening, Jeb? How about you, Karl?).

I think this bodes well for the future of the Republican Party.

“Trading Private Bergdahl” funniest spoof of all time

First, here is the link:

http://www.madmagazine.com/blog/2014/06/03/barack-obamas-unfortunate-new-movie

Please click the link, as it defies description.

I like one of the comments: if you have lost Mad Magazine, then you have lost America.

Amen.

I made a poster of it, here is how:

1. copy image (it is a 221KB JPEG file) to a USB flash drive
2. take it to your local copy store
3. have it printed, 8.5” x 11” size, color
4. card stock, glossy finish
5. it cost me a measly 80¢
6. put on your wall and laugh

I know, some of you might be tempted to make a stack and sell for fund raising. Do not do it, as you will be violating copyright law. However, tell them how to do it themselves. If I can do it, anyone can do it.

I would be willing to bet you can even make a T-shirt of it.

Thank you, Bill Gaines, wherever you are.

You Are Wrong About California Politics

I have lived here all my life, and over time have heard any variety of political punditry that does not seem to correspond to realpolitk. So, permit me to illuminate with a different light, keeping in mind that I am conservative Republican.

The Middle Class Is Getting Clobbered

I have often heard this, but repetition does not make it true. California tops the list of welfare generosity to the poor, and the gazillionaires in Silicone Valley are getting richer. Therefore, it leaves the “middle class” to get nailed right in the wallet.

Beg to differ.

First, the whole concept of a “middle class” is a Marxist idea: divide and conquer, and set the various classes against each other in economic warfare. Second, this conception misses the forest for the trees. In many ways, the state is hostile towards business in general. Therefore, rather than attracting population and new business, the exact opposite is happening. This is why, in many ways, California is an economic basket case where the opposite should be true.

Brown Is A Terrible Governor

Yes, I know, this is a common opinion, in as much as The Golden State has a tendency to produce solid, conservative chief executives: Reagan, Deukmejian, Wilson (Ahnold, not so much). Nevertheless, the state voters view him favorably as a decent, competent administrator.

Pet Rocks

Along with some coins and pocket lint in my jacket, I found:

• urban planning that encourages re-urbanization into skyscraper-apt buildings
• shiny, high-speed choo-choo train that goes from nowhere (Fresno) to nowhere (Bakersfield), note carefully it does not go from SF to LA
• statewide cap-n-trade
• free tuition to state colleges for illegal aliens
• liberal cities (SF/Bay Area, LA) dictating to conservative, rural areas
• goofy water allocation that values bait fish (delta smelt, ESA) over feeding humans (agriculture in the Central Valley)
• one of the highest state income and sales taxes of all other states
• state employee retirement systems that are in deep, statutory-debt doo-doo
• Democrat super-majority in both houses, meaning they can pass anything they want without any Republican support
• the melted remnants of a Hershey Bar
• an expired pizza coupon (oh, darn...)

It is important to note that, despite what outsiders may think, these gee-gaws exist because they maintain significant support among Californians.

Monterey Shale

The Golden State is sitting atop one of the largest reserves of shale gas/oil. They also oppose fracking based on environmental concerns: how foolish. Fortuitous. Umm...you see, major oil companies have drilled test wells. Based on the results, the EIA has reduced the amount by 95%. Turns out that the geologic formations in the Monterey Shale are different, and are not accessible using current fracking techniques. Recovery will have to wait for the future. Eastern Europe and China face the same problem with some of their oil shale reserves.

Kashkari Is A Bushie

Yes, this is the bluest of the blue states. Nevertheless, do not think that this has nudged the state Republicans to the center. Like other states, Republicans in this state has its share of conservatives who bristle at the Bushie/Rockefeller/Rove wing. For these, Kashkari was the TARP guy for Obama, another red mark against him.

California, Here I Come (or not...)

I am not happy with much of the political goings-on in The Golden State. Nevertheless, I find them to be reasonably congruent with the residents. I often do not agree, but Californians at large do. Like the old saying: you are entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts.  

Why Did Obama Release The Taliban Prisoners?

OK, folks, it is time once again for, “wild guess of the week”.

Huh?

O gave up 5 top Taliban generals from Guantanamo. In return, he received one American soldier widely believed to be a deserter. The US sure seems to have gotten the short end of the stick. Surely O knew of all this beforehand (and please, POTUS, none of this nonsense about not knowing the facts until you read about them in the NYT). Very puzzling indeed.

Leave No One Behind?

Gen McChrystal has defended this trade using the old saw that the US military does not leave people behind. Granted.

Think About O's Childhood

Remember that O has his youngster roots firmly planted in Islam. His adult view of the world might be deeply influenced as such. In this case, he might not view Islam, radical or otherwise, as a threat to Western Civilization, Christianity, Judaism, Democracy, or the US. Witness his refusal to fight The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Assad in Syria, Afghanistan, or Iraq.
Therefore, the prisoners he released were nothing more than political prisoners. What could be more righteous? O might think that, in his own mind, he did the right thing, regardless of what the world may think. It is a win, win, win all around.

Here You Go

Thank you for playing Gooses Wild.