We cannot defeat our enemy if we do not
understand them. Many view Tehran much like we used to view the 'Iron
Curtain': opaque and inscrutable. Perhaps, but there are a few things
that we can say.
Ignore the Man Behind the Curtain
Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad is often demonized in the Western press, but his job is
kinda like Jay Carney or Hillary Clinton. He is, at best, a
mouthpiece who does not exercise independent power. His official
title is 'President'. Ali Khamenei ('The Supreme Leader'), with the
support of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp, wields the real
power. He is the real Wizard of Oz.
Tower of Babel
Observe carefully the rather peculiar
machinations of the Chinese Communist Party Politburo, where the
court nobles vie for power and influence to become the next king.
Thus it is in Tehran. There are many Mullahs, and some do not agree
with the current regime and also wish to be Supreme Leader. There
are, according to rumor, some who do not think that possession of
nuclear weapons is in accordance with the Koran.
Iranian Spring, abandoned...
The Hungarian Revolution of 1956, The
Prague Spring of 1968, and now the Iranian Spring of June 2009. All
failed, because the United States of America did not come to the aid
of freedom-seeking peoples. Perhaps Mr. O abandoned them because he
did not wish to anger the Supreme Leader and the IRGC. I remind you,
however, that the original overthrow of the Shah occurred in 1979
thanks largely to a national uprising demanding change.
In Conclusion
Take all this with a rather large grain
of salt. How might this effect US foreign policy? Dunno. Suggest you
seek the wise counsel of John Bolton.
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