Ukraine War Just Got Worse

Russia is withdrawing! Huzzah! The war is over!

Not so fast, buckaroo. Let us examine the facts.

Pro-Russian Belief

Russia Is Pulling Back Its Troops.

The Truth

Not. US officials are continually quoted, saying that they see no evidence of a Russian military withdrawal along the Ukraine border. Keep in mind that Putin has made such statements/promises before. The second he figures it is to his advantage, he will go back on his word.

Pro-Russian Belief

Russia Is Not Interested In Annexing Eastern Ukraine.

The Truth

Russia is very interested in annexing Eastern Ukraine. She produces 500 helicopter engines annually for Russia, and also does refurb/maintenance on nuclear-tipped Russian ICBMs. All this has to be paid to Ukraine in cold, hard cash. Making these industries Russian property means she would get these arms free, quite a feather in Putin's cap.

Pro-Russian Belief

It's The Cold War 2.0.

The Truth

Some commentators are bemoaning that US/NATO is embarking on another 'Cold War', complete with the threat of nuclear war without due consideration or public debate. Nonsense. What we have here is a simple, old fashioned case of a stronger country stealing territory from a weaker neighbor. It has happened before, and will happen again.

Pro-Russian Belief

Russia Is Easing Tensions By Delaying “Elections”.

The Truth

Factually incorrect. Putin wants a delay, because the GRU is unable, at this point, to engineer an electoral 'victory' favoring alliance with Russia.

Pro-Russian Belief

Economic Sanctions Against Russia Threatens XOM And BP.

The Truth

This one might actually be true. However, the health of the economic future of Russia lies in the ever increasing export of oil. Putin needs these gigantic oil companies to pump out Russian oil. Locking them down is, as we say, “cutting off your nose to spite your face”.

Pro-Russian Belief

NATO Moves Are Provoking Russia.

The Truth

Recall Newton's Third Law of Motion: for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. NATO is simply a self-defense reaction to decades of Soviet/Russian aggression, and Putin knows this very well. He is not a scared, little bunny-rabbit. Putin is just using NATO as bogeyman so he can demagogue the situation. Even the Chinese have picked up on this rhetorical technique.

Pro-Russian Belief

This is just a temporary dust-up: move on, nothing to see here.

The Truth

The effort to keep Ukraine independent and not become a Russian satellite country is just beginning. This is the start of a task that will last years, and it is easy to see the conflict taking a decade or more.