The Republican Circular Firing Squad Too - Reload, Fire!!

I have been amused, and not in the good sense, at the continued inability of Republicans to properly use their power and correctly play their trump cards. Ain’t fur nuthin’ that declarer’s partner is called ‘dummy’.

AIN’T GONNA BE NO TREASURY PAPER DEFAULT

Treasury announced yesterday that redeeming Treasury paper will go to the front of the line and that there will be no default. Well: surprise, surprise, surprise. This task takes up $20 billion, SSI is another $60 billion, and there is $120 billion leftover for all the other stuff. True, Uncle Sam will have to choose which bills he will pay and those which he will not, kinda like a regular family that is having trouble making ends meet. With a few accounting tricks with the Fed, this situation can persist for many, many months.

THE TEA PARTY HAS WON

Senate Pro Tem Reid has taken a tax increase off of the table. Time for the Tea Party to do an end zone dance, take a Sharpie out their left tube sock, and sign a football from a fan in the front row of the stands.

BOEHNER PLAN BE HEAP BAD MEDICINE

(forgive my astonishingly accurate use of the Kwakiutl language). His plan is a $3.1 trillion cut in federal spending (I hasted to point out that even if every nickel of this comes to pass, it is still way short of the $4 trillion that S&P/Moody’s/Fitch says is necessary to avoid a downgrade of Treasury paper). $1.3 trillion of specified cuts (most of which is in the ‘out years’ and hence will never happen anyway); problem: CBO scored it and is only $800 billion. The remaining $1.8 trillion comes from a commission to be created later: kicking the f*cking can down the road yet again (remember his actions and statements during the CR brouhaha?). Has he not noticed that Mr. O has already tried this, Simpson-Bowles as has Ryan? Both plans have been completely ignored, and the one B anticipates (which can easily include a big, whopping, punitive tax increase) will suffer the same fate: total budget reduction = $0.00

NEVER THE TWAIN SHALL MEET

Some boneheads have suggested that Reid’s taking tax increases off the table is the result of the Speaker standing firm, and that we must therefore, in consequence, support his flaccid spending reduction plan. Guh? Reid’s action is probably the result of a private conversation with the House Minority Whip and his most recent head count that a tax increase will simply not happen, and totally irrelevant to anything the Speaker has or has not done.

THE DEBT CEILING MUST BE INCREASED

The Tea Party stance, that they will simply not vote for this, is totally nonsensical. Yes, it makes a mighty nice talking point, but really? Yes, we can still run the Federal Gov’t and not increase the debt ceiling and balance the budget: any idiot who can run spreadsheet can come up with a budget. Problem: this will require an immediate, across-the-board cut of 33%. Unless the Tea Party is going to announce this afternoon that they support a 33% cut in Social Security checks that will go out in August and forever after, their stance is not logical. Of course: in the process of allowing an increase in the debt ceiling, the Tea Party is certainly entitled to exact their pound of flesh from the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

I WANT A TAX INCREASE

No, no: put down the pitchforks and torches. Sit down. Relax. Breathe. I am referring to a Gipper tax increase, not a Marxist-Leninist-soak-millionaires-and-billionaires-and-the-rich-and-ain’t-it-unfair one (and since when is an employed married couple earning $250,000 a year ‘millionaires’?). You young whipper-snappers weren’t alive at the time, so permit me to illuminate the former. Yes, RWR took the top income tax rate of 70% down to less than half that. To do that, however, he did something that would be considered a tax increase by the Tea Party. You could, at the time, fully deduct charitable contributions directly off of your Gross Income from your 1040 right off of the top even if you did not itemize; if you did itemize, you could also deduct the interest you paid on your credit card bills. These and many other popular tax dodges were simply eliminated. I think that Simpson-Bowles got it right: let us eliminate the tax deductions for home mortgage interest and state/local taxes. In fact, let us eliminate 1040 Schedule A altogether and all those tax deductions; in return, the top income tax rate will be reduced to 25%. In this case, the tax code will become flatter, fairer, and simpler. Even better, we will no longer be obligated to spend $100s billion on tax preparation services and accountants.

FOCUS, PEOPLE

For the first time since the days of Newt the Speaker, Republicans are actively trying to reduce the size and spending and tax bill of Uncle Sam. Republicans and their supporters should be celebrating, enjoying, encouraging and luxuriating: it should be a wet dream come true. Instead, the House leadership is persisting in their strategy of a circular firing squad. Removing Mr. B as the speaker would not be the worst outcome imaginable in the current situation (I vote for McCarthy, Ryan, DeMint, or Cantor, if I had won in 2010, that is).

SecTreas Geithner to Social Security Recipients - Drop Dead?

Well, he indirectly threatened that if the Federal Debt Ceiling is not raised, you might not get your SSI checks. To be sure, Mr. O has done the same thing.

What nonsense.

I thank whatever business website (I forget which one) calculated: every month, Uncle Sam receives $200 billion, but pays out $60 billion in SSI checks. In fact, this happens automatically by statute, and can be changed only by an Executive Order.

So, you see, plenty ‘o dough also for Veteran Benefits, Military Salary, etc. The shortfall is something like $100 billion a month, so we would have to shut down the Dept of Energy and Labor and Ag and Education and whatever. Big fat hairy deal.

DNC Chairmuffin Makes a Serious Tactical Mistake

Above politician has traded ad hominem barbs with Congressman Alan West. I know that this has riled the Right, but I have slightly different take.

For one thing, this has revealed the chairpencils long standing personal vendetta against West (fyi: they are from neighboring districts in Florida). While it may not cause a job loss, it makes the chairhat damaged goods and therefore that much more ineffective, witness the RNC previous chair.

Second, it has made West a celebrity. Before, I would hazard to guess that virtually no one, even Republicans, had ever heard of him. Now, thanks to the goodly chairleaf, contributions from all over the country will pour into his 2012 campaign coffers. He is conservative, a war hero, and, by the way, black.

In this case, I would encourage the chairwindow to continue said behavior.

The Republican Circular Firing Squad

C’mon people: the Republicans, with the Tea Party as its foundation, have all of the trump cards. If anything dopey happens, it will clearly be on the head of the President. Treasury paper default or downgrade? Blame the Prez, he is the leader. Financial chaos? 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue: hope and change, Shangri-La, si pueda, and so forth.

But look at the behavior: the ‘Gang of Six’; McConnell’s cockamamie and unconstitutional idea, Boehner saying that of course they will compromise. Contrast this with the behavior of Dems when they were in the minority: everyone was on the same page, the morning conference call from the White House, they even used similar language in their comments to the press. They were disciplined in pursuit of a specific goal.

Are Republicans not as smart?

Dear Mr. President, It Is Time to Eat Your Peas

Yes, I know: you love eating banana splits (throwing around $trillions like Santa Claus). However, you cannot eat them for breakfast, lunch, and dinner: the frig is nearly empty. It is high time to buckle down and eat your peas (big, painful cuts in the current year budget, not promises of same in the ‘out years’).

I remind you that the bond rating agencies have stated that just increasing the debt ceiling will not do. It must also be accompanied by deep, painful, politically unpopular cuts in all areas of gov’t spending, including food stamps, Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security.

(For the record, I love peas: they are one of the few frozen things that I will eat; a hunk of butter, salt, pepper, pinch of sugar, and genuine Paprika, and I can eat a whole bag of the things).

Berkeley City Council Student Wars - What Nonsense

There is a movement afoot to create a city council district encompassing UC students, the idea being to elect a student to the Berkeley City Council. Anyone who barely scratches the surface of city politics knows what nonsense this is, so much so that I wonder if there is an ulterior motive at work, i.e. I smell a rat.

UC STUDENTS DO NOT VOTE IN BERKELEY

The majority of the student body does not vote, and those that do remain registered in their home district, and do not reregister in Berkeley. I campaigned for public office, including UC students. If you are in a room of 2 or 3 dozen politically active students, consider yourself lucky if one in the room is registered to vote in Berkeley. Yes, there are tens of thousands of UC students, but I would consider it unlikely that as many as the mid-single-digits-percentage actually vote in Berkeley.

THERE IS ALREADY A STUDENT CITY COUNCIL DISTRICT

That is #7, currently occupied by Worthington. This is the south campus area, where most of the students live, including the dorms.

STUDENTS WILL NOT RUN FOR CITY COUNCIL

It would be quite easy (and has been since 1986), with a concentrated effort including a UC student voter reg drive and GOTV, to elect a student in #7. Yet, since districts were invented in Berkeley, there has been one (maybe 2) student candidates in #7, and even these were symbolic, and not serious, challenges to their city council seat. A student has never been elected to #7 because no one has ever seriously wanted the seat. As a practical matter, no successful candidate in 7 (including Worthington) has been elected to this seat without significant student support.

So there.

Why Does the Debt Ceiling Exist At All?

The US debt ceiling, over which the Prez and Congress are having a political jujitsu match, only dates to 1939. It was originally installed to restrain federal gov’t spending and limit its size.

(I pause briefly while waiting for you to stop laughing).

Usually, this has never been a factor, since Congress routinely increased the ceiling without giving it a second thought. With a strong Tea Party wind blowing through the land, the debt ceiling is having a concrete effect on budget negotiations for the first time in my lifetime.

Yes, the current plan of ‘cut (spending), cap (put a permanent cap on the total size of the budget), and balance (the ol’ balanced budget amendment lives again)’ is of course the correct action. Still, it has little chance of surviving the Senate, much less a veto pen.

If, as it seems increasingly likely, we end up with a last minute compromise comprising a tax increase, debt ceiling increase, and cuts in the Federal budget in the out-years (which, somehow, never seem to materialize), what use is the debt ceiling? If it does not, in the end, make a real difference now (other than inspiring a round of Kabuki theater), then when, if ever?

In this case, we should simply get rid of the stupid thing. Its existence might make us feel good, but c’mon, let’s get real. I vote for Gramm-Rudman-Hollings as a useful tool that actually worked.

The Obama “Enemies List”

(For those who do not know why the phrase above has quotes, Google that phrase along with “Richard Nixon”). So far, those who are opposed to Truth, Justice, and The American Way are:

• oil and gas companies
• corporate jet owners
• hedge fund managers
• book authors
• First Ladies who stuff their faces with French fries as part of a 1,700 calorie cheeseburger lunch (her FDA will allow you to eat only 2,000 calories per day; athletes and pregnant women get 2,500)

(Oh, wait, scratch the last one; that one is from my list). In the World According to Obama, these are folks who have earned more enough, and have more money than they really need. Therefore, Mr. O has the right to tax away what he believes to be excess and spend it according to his own political orthodoxy.

You might think that this is populist, arrogant, envious, Marxist, or any combination of these; you would probably be correct. However, witness: perhaps these are clawings on the cliff as one slowly slips away. He knows that his tax-the-rich mantra is not gaining traction, and is adding more to the list hoping that his demagoguery will take hold (see Rules for Radicals, Alinsky, p. 129: eleventh rule; “…If you push a negative hard and deep enough it will break through into its counterside…”).

We shall see.

Is this Armageddon for social security checks???...relax, ain’t so

First, I draw your attention to the great state of Minnesota: the state does not have a budget, so is shut down. Is this the end of society as we know it? Babies are still being fed, grocery stores still have healthy foods, there is plenty of gasoline to buy, the sun still rises in the East and sets in the West, the babbling brook is still babbling and birds are still singing. So there: maybe Minnesota is better this way.

If the limit on Uncle Sam’s credit card is not increased by Aug. 2, nothing will happen; zip, zero, zilch, nada. Most of the $$$ Uncle Sam pays out is automatic, and there is more than enough $$$ to pay off all Treasury paper being redeemed, Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid/Welfare payments, all wages for federal law enforcement and the military, and even all Federal employees will get paid.

The President and SecTreas are flat-out lying to you when they imply that you won’t get your Social Security check starting Aug. 3. What will really happen? The cash flow shortfall will come out selectively from voluntary/optional payments like foreign aid payments, agricultural subsidies, and so forth. Explain to me why this is a bad thing?

The President has the Sword of Damocles hanging over his head: unless Republicans cave, he is a whole heap ‘o trouble. Republicans must realize this, or they will miss a once-in-a-lifetime oppurtunity to truly limit the size of the Federal behemoth (this also makes an excellent opportunity to de-fund Obamacare). One can only hope that the power of the Tea Party in the House gives Country Club Republicans a spine.

As for McConnell’s cockamamie end-around the Constitution he pronounced today, sigh…not a good sign, sounds like a capitulation-in-the-making.

Gov. Moonbeam doofs on California - again

It is amusing, but not in a good sense, to watch the antics of the current occupant of the Guv’s mansion. OK, so who gets screwed this week? Amazon Affiliates, c’mon down!

Yes, I know: I must first explain what an affiliate is. You have a web page or blog or webfront store that might get people to buy things. So, you put a link on your webpage, but the other side of the link is an Amazon product page. Whenever anyone clicks on the link and buys something, you get a 15% commission. Pretty neat deal, huh? In California, there are literally thousands of such affiliates, some of whom are charitables and non-profits. Problem: according to state tax law, such affiliates of an internet retailer counts as a physical presence in the state (beginning to see where this is going?).

Moonbeam and his cohorts just passed a law taxing internet sales, aimed mainly at that internet retailing powerhouse Amazon. The bad guys proceed to rub their hands together in glee, anticipating all the moola they are about to receive. Did no one think to review what happened in other states that attempted, without success, to do the same thing? You guessed it: rather than agree, Amazon did what it usually does in an attempt to save money for their customers: it stops all $$$ to the state’s affiliates and gets an exemption to the internet sales tax.

Was this a wise move? You be the judge.

Casey Anthony is Not Guilty? Really?

This has nothing to do with politics, right? Or not. I think that the same visceral, deep-in-the-gut reaction to this court case is the same elemental force that causes people to decide which political party to vote for, so let us spend a moment or two thinking about this case.

I think that Mark Levin was correct: the public outrage over the verdict of ‘not guilty’ is a reaction to the media coverage of the case rather than the merits of the DA’s case.

For those who have been living under a rock for the past couple of weeks, Ms. Anthony was accused of killing her 2 yo to continue her life as a bon vivant. The jury acquitted her on all counts. Hence, cries of outrage over a miscarriage of justice.

The jury had a choice of murder-1, murder-2, and manslaughter. Not only did the jury to not convict her of any of these, they did so like greased lightening in a mere 11 hours, even more amazing since they also had to consider 4 other charges of lying to police.

No, this does not mean that she did not commit the crime. It does mean that the DA’s case was weak and flaccid, and that he is probably not qualified to clean your toilet bowl.

In this case, it seems likely that she really did kill her baby. However, in the US justice system, you must prove this. The DA did not succeed. I was a juror in a PI case (sorry: civil personal injury lawsuit). Here, you can vote guilty if you think it so, and the legal standard you are tasked with is ‘balance of the evidence’. In a murder case, the DA must prove ‘beyond a reasonable doubt’, and in this case, there was plenty to doubt about the DA’s case.

However, does my opining convince you that justice was truly done? Don’t you still think that Ms. Anthony truly should have been judged guilty of murder? This is the same sort of thinking that I encountered when I ran for Congress. No matter how convincing your evidence, Joe or Jill six-pack will remain unmoved. This is the obstacle that politicians face in an election where you have the facts but not the emotion on your side.

Is Boehner Going to Stab the Tea Party in the Back Again?

OK, last time we left our hero, he promised $100 billion+ in tax cuts in exchange for passing a budget. It turns out that the $$$ cut that he agreed to was really half, and when accountants analyzed the numbers, the actual tax cuts was in the single digits.

Happy Days Are Here Again!!! Our hero is at it again, this time trying to extract yet even more concessions and spending cuts! I wish to remind you that the House Speaker, leader of the Republicans, is an old-fashioned ‘country club Republican’. By that, I mean: he is OK with the size and power of the Federal Government, its intrusion into private and public life, and most importantly with the amount of taxes. His only problem is that the Dems have the wrong philosophy; this is at polar opposite as to what the Tea Party stands for, and he could care less. It is inevitable that he will rollover like a house pet to whatever Obama puts into his bowl.

A couple of days ago, Sen. Kyle (Az) let the cat out of the bag: current negotiations do not involve tax increases, because B et al are calling it ‘revenue enhancement’ and ‘fees’, and not a word about converting Medicaid to a block grant or Medicaid into a voucher program.

Is this anyway to craft a budget? This is supposed to include: Congressional hearings, public comment, back-and-forth between Congressional Committees, lots of media coverage and somewhat inaccurate analysis, and the Senate and the White House. Currently, the negotiations are occurring in secret behind closed doors.

Is this anyway to build a budget: ‘of the people, for the people and by the people’?

Hmmm?

This is a once in a lifetime chance to truly bring Uncle Sam’s budget under control, and to cure people of that monthly check of free $$$ at taxpayer expense. Over my lifetime, there have been many effective ways to reduce Uncle Sam’s belt notches.

Note to Obama: I will agree to as many DOD cuts as you wish, if you will agree to 50% in immediate cuts to Medicare and Medicaid.

Do we have a deal, Mr. President? Hello?