Ukraine Elections! Celebrate Good Times!

[ICYW, the quote is from “Celebration” by Kool and the Gang]

Well, well, well. Ukraine had a successful election.

Huzzah!

The ink wasn't even dry on the page from the inkjet printer announcing the election, when the naysayers came out of the woodworks. Permit me to do a little color commentary.

Poroshenko Won—Get Over It

Many are critical of Mr P. Perhaps this skepticism is justifiable, perhaps not. Nevertheless, he won the election fair and square in a surprise landslide. He garnered not just a plurality, but an absolute majority. He is now the legitimate president of Ukraine, whether you like it or not.

Russia Is In The Wrong

The polemic is that Putin's adventurism is being caused by NATO approach towards Russian borders. Hogwash. The USSR collapsed, and there are those who dream wistfully of past glory. Many Russians, and not just Putin, support a return to days of yore.

Putin Is Stalin Redux

I find the behavior of both to be similar: they will lie, cheat, and steal to get their way. People die? Not a problem. They rule from the top down: do as I say, or else. Putin is not the knight in shining armor who will ride in on his trusty white steed to save Ukraine from itself.

It Is OK To Be Pro-Russian

But, please, at least do us the dignity of admitting as such. Do not pretend to be a neutral observer with no viewpoint or opinion.

Sowing Instability and Confusion

At this point, it would be wise to remind ourselves of Russian strategy in Ukraine. They seek to cause maximum chaos, so that Ukrainians do not which direction is up and which is down, even if this means sending in Russian military intelligence to kill pro-Russian Ukrainians.

Ukraine The Next Generation

Let us hope that the successful election is the beginning a new chapter in Ukrainian history.

Dona nobis pacem.

Al Gore—Malthus Raises His Ugly Head Again

Thomas Who?

Thomas Robert Malthus was an English cleric and was, among other disciplines, an economist whose career spanned the early 19^th century. His work, An Essay on the Principles of Population, postulated that the earth's resources were static, but that the growth of the human race is dynamic. Therefore, he concluded that sooner or later we would all die off from disease and starvation. This rather regrettable (and totally wrong) theory has come up several times in history, and proven wrong each and every time. Al Gore is merely the latest in a long line wearing the Malthus cartoon head.

Sci-fi: Truth is Stranger Than Fiction

When I was a teenager (yes, folks, there was such a time), I read 2 books. The God Machine (Caidin, 1969), and Colossus - The Forbin Project ( D. F. Jones, 1970). They both postulated the existence of a super-human computer that threatens mankind (yes, this was where the idea of the Terminator move series was cloned from). This super-computer synthesized all the knowledge of mankind and cured cancer (“Watson”, anyone?). Later in the book, the computer becomes rebellious and (I paraphrase) refused to participate in the rape of earth's natural resources (something about mining the oceans' floor for minerals). The problem is, I am not sure which novel contains this plot twist. Does this principle sound familiar to anyone?

Eliot Janeway

This dude was forever forecasting doom and gloom, so much so that he acquired the nickname “Calamity Janeway”. The family will collapse, agriculture will collapse, the US economy will collapse, the world banking system will collapse (well, OK, he was kinda right on this one, but not for the reason he postulated), the price of copper and iron will be 10x that of gold. The problem here, is that he calculated dates for these various catastrophes, and was 100% wrong each and every time.

Club of Rome

In 1974, this think tank published The Limits to Growth. It postulated that a human population could grow indefinitely, and requires consummate unlimited economic growth. This, they claimed, was impossible. Well, OK. However, they published a series of books. By the time they got around to publishing their last book, they almost repudiated their original predictions and economic equations.

Malthus, The Next Generation

In 1992, Al Gore published Earth in the Balance. He postulates that humans are fouling their nest. Unless something is done now, the earth will cease to be able to support the human race. By now, this political stance should be annoyingly familiar.

Al Gore was not the first, nor will he be the last, to raise aloft the ugly visage of Malthus as his standard. I realize full well that fans thereof will not be converted by my skepticism. I hope that, at least, I have educated you about the genesis of this regrettable and totally wrong opinion.

Ukraine War for Dummies

(with apologies to the publisher of the real “For Dummies” book series).

Much to my annoyance, there is much disinformation (in the old Soviet tradition) about same making rounds. I modestly herewith attempt to dispel such myths.

Likes, Damn Lies, and the Russian News Media

Back, oh so many decades ago as an undergrad at UC Berkeley, I took a Russian language class during the bad-old-days of the old USSR. There were 2 newspapers: Izvestia (“information”) and Pravda (“truth”). The joke went: Izvestia nye Pravda, Pravda nye Izvestia (information is not truth, truth is not information). I find the current behavior of Russian media to be not dissimilar to that of the old USSR media.

It Is Not a Civil War

This is not a conflict between the pro-Ukraine Kiev, and pro-Russian eastern provinces. What we have here is a simple, old-fashion military invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

There Are No Ukrainian “Fascists”

The native Ukrainians who toppled the pro-Russian Yanukovich government have been depicted (by the Russian Press) as fascists, e.g. neo-Nazis. Factually incorrect. Those few “fascists” that have been identified turn out to be Russian Military Special Ops.

The “Election” Results Are Faked

These “pop” elections are organized, coordinated, supervised, overseen, ballots counted, and results announced by Russian Military Intelligence. Pro-Russian votes were announced at 96.7%. You be the judge.

Regular Russian Military Forces Are Massed on the Ukraine Border

Analysts estimate that there are some 40,000 regular Russian troops massed along Ukraine border. They are conducting military drills so that, upon Putin's order, they can conquer all Ukraine quickly before Kiev knows what hit them. Not unlike Hitler's “blitzkrieg” during WWII.

Putin Also Covets the Baltic States, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus

It is to his advantage that not 1 in a 100 readers of this blog are able to accurately identify these countries on a map. These are previous USSR “satellite” countries, living under Soviet jackboots. He wishes to place them under his control once again.

Economic Sanctions Ain't Gonna Do Nuthin”

Western response to this military invasion seems to be limited to economic sanctions. These doo-hickeys did not stop N Korea from going nuclear, is not slowing down Iran's march to the nuclear bomb, and will be equally ineffective in changing current Russian military behavior.

Team Obama Response Is Feckless

There are many who say that O has no foreign policy, or that they cannot figure it out. Beg to differ. O is easy to understand. He makes a rather firm and belligerent speech, accompanied by concrete actions (even though these actions are ineffective pin-pricks). In his mind, he has addressed the problem, and, therefore, solved the crisis and moves on.

Real Ukrainians Could Care Less About Russia

Russian-speaking eastern Ukrainians are not champing at the bit to break away from that evil Kiev, and longing to rejoin “mother Russia”. They could care less if the occupant of the presidency is Yanukovich or Yatsenyuk. Having had a taste of democracy, they only wish to be left alone to live their lives in peace and, hopefully, prosperity.

The EU Could Care Less About Russia

Many of you are not old enough to remember the “Shining Path”. These were a powerful group of Marxist guerrillas (can you name the country?). The US response was indifference: we did not crank up our military response or send forces southwards to defeat the rebels. We viewed it as a rather distant conflict that did not really concern us, so we ignored it. Western parts of the EU have a similar yawn regarding the Ukraine War. However, former Soviet satellite countries bordering Russia are on alert and, to the best of their limited ability, strengthening military spending.  

Ukraine War Just Got Worse

Russia is withdrawing! Huzzah! The war is over!

Not so fast, buckaroo. Let us examine the facts.

Pro-Russian Belief

Russia Is Pulling Back Its Troops.

The Truth

Not. US officials are continually quoted, saying that they see no evidence of a Russian military withdrawal along the Ukraine border. Keep in mind that Putin has made such statements/promises before. The second he figures it is to his advantage, he will go back on his word.

Pro-Russian Belief

Russia Is Not Interested In Annexing Eastern Ukraine.

The Truth

Russia is very interested in annexing Eastern Ukraine. She produces 500 helicopter engines annually for Russia, and also does refurb/maintenance on nuclear-tipped Russian ICBMs. All this has to be paid to Ukraine in cold, hard cash. Making these industries Russian property means she would get these arms free, quite a feather in Putin's cap.

Pro-Russian Belief

It's The Cold War 2.0.

The Truth

Some commentators are bemoaning that US/NATO is embarking on another 'Cold War', complete with the threat of nuclear war without due consideration or public debate. Nonsense. What we have here is a simple, old fashioned case of a stronger country stealing territory from a weaker neighbor. It has happened before, and will happen again.

Pro-Russian Belief

Russia Is Easing Tensions By Delaying “Elections”.

The Truth

Factually incorrect. Putin wants a delay, because the GRU is unable, at this point, to engineer an electoral 'victory' favoring alliance with Russia.

Pro-Russian Belief

Economic Sanctions Against Russia Threatens XOM And BP.

The Truth

This one might actually be true. However, the health of the economic future of Russia lies in the ever increasing export of oil. Putin needs these gigantic oil companies to pump out Russian oil. Locking them down is, as we say, “cutting off your nose to spite your face”.

Pro-Russian Belief

NATO Moves Are Provoking Russia.

The Truth

Recall Newton's Third Law of Motion: for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. NATO is simply a self-defense reaction to decades of Soviet/Russian aggression, and Putin knows this very well. He is not a scared, little bunny-rabbit. Putin is just using NATO as bogeyman so he can demagogue the situation. Even the Chinese have picked up on this rhetorical technique.

Pro-Russian Belief

This is just a temporary dust-up: move on, nothing to see here.

The Truth

The effort to keep Ukraine independent and not become a Russian satellite country is just beginning. This is the start of a task that will last years, and it is easy to see the conflict taking a decade or more.  

Ukraine: It is War

Russia has militarily invaded Ukraine. That Putin is smart enough to use GRU operatives (Google it) and partisans crossing the border rather than SU29s and T80s is besides the point. The invasion has nothing to do with NATO expansion eastward. Russia has been lying in ambush, stalking her pray like a panther. She strikes now, cuz she smells weakness in the West Wing. Putin is risking war, both conventional and nuclear, and knows it very well. However, the calculation is that, in the end, she will get her way. It is difficult to disagree. The rather bellicose response by Team Obama is a sign of weakness, not strength.

The Military Situation

I could not find very much info.

• US/NATO has moved token forces (jet fighters, airborne units) to the Russian border.
• Ukraine forces, such as they are, are trying to regain her territory from Russian forces. This is being made more difficult, cuz the GRU is using Ukrainian citizens as human shields.
• Russia is marshaling conventional military forces on the Ukraine border, but, so far, are staying put.

Now What Do We Do?

Russia is a bully, arrogant, or both. It is difficult to say. However, the US response must focus on Ukraine as the injured party, rather than placating Russia.

• Ukrainian entry into NATO should be fast-tracked somehow. Then, aid, both monetary and military, can be given to Kiev.
• Ukraine must repudiate her debt to Gazprom. She owes something like $15b. However, Russia is now the enemy. It is not logical to give money to your enemy. Yes, I know, deliveries of natural gas to Ukraine and Europe will be cut off. However, there are several months to find a solution before the cold, snowy winter sets in.
• Russian GRU and partisans must be pushed back over the Russian border where they came from, and be prevented from coming back.
• Ukraine needs time to heal the wounds inflicted upon her by Russia.
• Ukraine must have democratic elections, so she will have a legitimate President and Parliament for all Ukraine, including Crimea and the West.

Ugh...

The most disgusting thing I have heard about the Ukrainian War is: Crimea is now a legitimate part of Russia. Yeah, right. In the same way that the Sudetenland became a legitimate part of Nazi Germany.  

Happy Birthday, Israel!

Go ahead, blow out the candles, all 66 of them.

The last 3 SecStates, Dept of State machinery, and at least 2 US presidents I can name, all are hostile towards Israel from a foreign policy standpoint. I will stop short of calling them antisemitic, but the thought is a persistent one.

Ironically, Muslims, say a Palestinian, actually has more rights and liberty and freedom in Israel than in an Islamic country. Why? Cuz that is just how Israel is.

Nevertheless, let us raise our glass, and make a toast for the continued existence, strength, and influence of Israel in an otherwise chaotic part of our world. To Infinity and Beyond!

Ukraine: Civil War, or Russian Mistake?

I am growing just a wee bit annoyed at Russia and her autocratic czar Putin. So, here goes nothin'.

A Sovereign Country Violated

Like it or not, Ukraine is a sovereign country. No amount of historical tap dancing will change this fact. Do not give me this nonsense about Krushchev/Crimea, historical ties between Kharkiv and Moscow, the East is with Putin, pop elections, or unwashed gym socks. To quote an old saw, you are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts. Russia has militarily crossed the border of an independent country, and she must be made to pay. Nothun' comes for free. Ukraine should defend herself, but essentially has a military that barely exists, and can do nothing to defend herself against Russia, and Putin knows this very well. In fact, the cautious military moves by Kiev is definitely to her credit, and demonstrates who is the adult in the room.

The US Is Not To Blame

The public visitation to Kiev by SecState reps is being touted as a serious mistake.

Au contraire.

A public display of support for Kiev is a key act that proves that, yes, we are with you. Russia has blamed all the trouble on US interference. What nonsense, and everyone knows it. This is merely a fig leaf for outright Russian military aggression. Russia stuck her fat, greedy fingers into Ukraine and was caught fare and square, red-handed.

It Is Not Eastern Ukrainians, It Is The GRU

You may have heard stories about municipal buildings being seized, confrontation with civilian police, protests, and random shootings. These are generally blamed on Pro-Russian, Eastern Ukrainian partisans.

What a lie.

In those few cases where the perpetrators have been identified, they turn out to be not Ukrainians, but rather Russian Military Intelligence officers operating clandestinely: GRU. If this sounds unfamiliar to you, perhaps you will recognize their old name: the KGB.

The East is not with Russia; in fact, they could care less.

Poland?

She is howling for Russian blood, justifiably so IMHO. She wants US/NATO armor planted right on the border with Russia. Why? Cuz for a large chunk of her history, Ukraine was actually part of the Duchy of Poland, and they are historical best-buds, not unlike the US and Canada.

The Trip-Wire Concept

The US has placed token forces on Russian borders. So, if Russia invades the Baltic States, and it is a question of not if but when, Putin will have US blood on his hands. Does he have the huevos? We shall see.

The Natural Gas Ballet

Here is the punchline to a not-funny joke: EU/Ukraine and Russia need each other. EU needs the natural gas that Russia supplies, and Russia desperately needs the hard currency from the sale of natural gas to Europe. Neither side can afford to cut off the other.