Beginner's Guide to Muslims: Shia vs. Sunni

Cast of Characters

SHIA

Iran

Iraq

Assad/Alawite/Syria

Hezbollah

SUNNI

Egypt

Turkey

Saudi Arabia/Wahhabism

Afghanistan/Pashtun

Jordan/Hashemite

Qatar

Pakistan

Hussein/Ba'ath/Iraq (deposed)

Muslim Brotherhood/Qutbism

Hamas

Al-Qaeda

Mujahideen/Taliban

Haqqani Network

ISIL

Free Syrian Army

Indonesia (huh?)

Case #1: Wither Shia?

The scorecard is quite lopsided. Indeed, 90% of all Muslims worldwide are Sunni. However, do not be misled by this numeric disparity. Both groups are quite dangerous and do their share of evil (from a Judeo-Christian viewpoint) in this world.

Case #2: the Parking Lot

There was a historic building in Saudi Arabia associated with a family member of Mohammed, making it sacred for Shiites. Recently, it was unceremoniously razed to the ground and a parking lot built on top. Why? Because Saudi Arabia is Sunni, making the structure more useful as a parking lot.

Case #3: ISIL

Having their origin in Syria, this one is now sweeping across Iraq with all manner of horrors I would rather not repeat. Yet, many Arab countries are sitting on the hands. Can you guess why? ISIL is Sunni, and Iraq is Shia. There are rumors that major Sunni powers are supporting them, among them Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. They seem to have no qualms about Sunnis stomping on a Shia country.

Case #4: Tehran vs. Riyadh

The former is the main player for Shia, the latter likewise for Sunni. Every time you hear of Muslim on Muslim violence, keep this dichotomy in mind.

Case #5: Kill the Apostates

In the New Testament, there is only one unforgivable sin: apostasy. Likewise for Islam: both schools of thought view the other as apostates, which is why they direct more violence towards each other to us, who are merely unbelievers.

Case #6: Not All Pashtuns are Taliban

The reason the Taliban will never really be defeated is that its genesis is in the native Pashtun population. So, all Taliban are Pashtun, but not all Pashtun are Taliban. In fact, Taliban often point their violence at other Pashtun.

Case #7: Taliban & Al-Qaeda

Sloppy thinking tends to equate these 2. Not so. The former seek to overtake Pakistan and Afghanistan. The latter are funded by Tehran and seek to export their terror internationally. They have franchises in several countries.

Case #8: Taliban Also Threatens Pakistan

One of the major sources of support of the Taliban are sympathetic elements in Pakistani military and intelligence agencies. Ironically, if Pakistan falls, it will be from a Taliban insurgency.

Case #9: “Qu'ran”?

In fact it translates as read or recite. Muslim and Islam translate as surrender or obedience, i.e. to Allah. None of these words translates as peace, unless you mean the tranquility of simply following the will of Allah (who is not peaceful in the Western sense).

Case #10: Takfiri?

It is an important concept to understand, and translates as apostate, which is different from nonbeliever. If you study it, more violence occurs Muslim against Muslim, rather than Muslim against the West. The 2 schools of Islam view each other as apostates.

Case #11: Islam Will Never Conquer Christianity or Judaism

In the same way that the reverse is also true. However, Muslims, like any other religion, requires a bogeyman. Judeo-Christianity serves the purpose for Islam.

Case #12: Islamic Culture is NOT Arabic Culture

Arabic culture is as old as Western culture. The recent trend of extremist terrorism (Jihad, Sharia law, suicide bombing) only dates back a century. The genesis was that of the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1920's in Egypt. There are many places where you can experience Arab hospitality dating back centuries/millenia unrelated to violent Islam.

Case #13: the US Really is At Fault for the Mess in Iraq

No, I am not referring to the original decision to invade. When you topple a government, you must have a blueprint as to what will happen next: the central, ruling authority will not regenerate spontaneously. In this sense, the President was poorly served by his advisors (Rice, Cheney, Powell, Rumsfeld). This was an even greater tragedy since he trusts them. The first administrator was Garner: he seemed to understand that water, sewage, electricity, and garbage pickup come first. Conversely, there was chaos and it seemed as if no one was in charge. Next came Bremmer, and things got worse. He made 3 mistakes: disbanding the police and army, not immediately installing the opposition leaders to start picking up the pieces, and repeatedly delaying elections. I heard his justifications, but I still think he made the wrong decisions.

Islamic Civil War—the Next Generation

The conflict between these two schools of thought will continue into the future: both near and far. True democracy simply is not in the cards for a country whose culture is Muslim. The thought that the US, UN, NATO, or Israel can do anything to change this is not reasonable. The internecine killings must stop. That means a gathering of the major forces, regardless of what “the West” thinks of them. Yes, it will result in an ugly patchwork quilt distasteful in our eyes. Get the hospitals, electricity, sewage systems, water supply, and agriculture working again, then we can talk about democracy. Until the killings have stopped and peoples' bellies are full, democracy has no chance.

By now, you should be confused with a gigantic headache. If not, then you are not paying attention. Unless you understand that Western and Arabic culture are different, and that superimposing one over the other will never work, you have no hope of understanding. On the flip side of the coin, yes: I am speaking whereof I often do not really know. Mountains of scholarly books have been written by authors with first hand experience. If any of this seems interesting, I encourage you to seek them out.  

In Defense of Ukraine against Russia

Ruble Collapses: Whither Russia?

Well, well, well. The price of oil/natural gas has collapsed. This is bad news for any oil producing country, but Russia is especially vulnerable. A large portion of her government budget is funded by them. That is why the Ruble has plummeted. The national budget, not to mention the Russian economy, is in for a world of hurt.

The Ukraine Army Has Been Destroyed

To say that the Ukraine military is of modest size is to be generous. What little of it there was, has been wiped out by a rather small Russian force. This seems to be little known.

NATO Has No Intention to Dismantle Russia

There are some opinions that the EU and NATO are trying to surround and isolate Russia: at best a half-truth. The EU is always trying to expand membership to all European countries, including former Warsaw Pact ones, but not all of them qualify. They are not singling out ones that adjacent to Russia. NATO is indeed moving some military assets up against the Russian border, but this happened after Russia invaded Crimea. Putin should acquaint himself with Newton's Third Law of Motion.

It's Not Ukraine or Russia, It's Putin

That a diplomatic solution has not been found is rather disappointing. This will not occur until both sides holster their six-shooters, share a bottle of vodka, and talk things out. Yes, Brussels and Washington also have a role to play, but Putin would rather show-off his machismo. Unless he and his henchmen fall out of power, it is difficult to see how a solution can be fashioned. For example, he thinks that it is his right to “take back” Crimea.

Ukraine Citizens Should Be Allowed to Choose for Themselves

Hearing opinions that outside forces should be allowed to dictate as to what the constitution, national boundaries, states, parliament membership, and government structure should be, is rather disquieting. They have already had elections, and opinions that these are not legitimate are even worse.

Ukraine vs. Russia War—the Next Generation

The only predictable thing about politics, diplomacy, and war is that they are unpredictable. One ought to be very skeptical of anyone telling you how things are going to work out or that the only solution is this or that. Already, the war has taken a couple of unexpected twists and turns, and this is unlikely to change anytime soon.

Equality is Different from Liberty

I usually equate these two words as both sides of the same coin, but I wonder. I read a book review of Our Declaration: a Reading of the Declaration of Independence in Defense of Equality in the 9/22/14 issue of National Review.

The problem lies how the principle of “equality” is defined. It certainly does not mean equality of wealth, knocking out the legs of our progressive income tax. It does not mean equality of outcome in our lives, therefore canceling out the justification for welfare and transfer payments of various types. To others, it means equality of opportunity, which is very much different.

Liberty, however, has a rather concrete definition. We can live our lives as we wish, which means limited government power. We can choose whatever type of light bulb and toilet we want. We can be as careful or reckless as we wish. We can eat as much unhealthy food as desired.

I have always thought of “liberty” and “equality” in the same sentence. My thinking has changed: these 2 principles are entirely different, and have nothing to do with each other.  

The Most Brilliant Thing Ever Said About the Federal Deficit

I call your attention to an article “Our Democratic Debt” in the July 21,2014 issue of National Review by Christopher DeMuth. The subtitle is “We're borrowing to fund personal benefits not public goods”.

The Debate

If you spend any time at all listening to economic debates and opinions, you will mostly encounter a cacophony: Keynesians and Austrians, Krugman and Friedman, Democrats and Republicans, liberals and conservatives, Fed hawks and doves. Sure as shootin', you will not find consensus on the US budget deficit or the Federal debt.

The Deficit of Yesteryear

The only time the US ran substantial deficits was in time of war, and to a lesser degree banking crises and natural disaster. The problem would pass, and the debt would be paid off, more or less.

Where the US Gov't Used to Spend Its Money

Up until recent decades, the only substantial expenditures were on bridges, roads, dams, and the like. These are capital expenditures that all future generations would benefit from. What limited spending was the rather finite number of these things that could be built.

Then Came LBJ and the Great Society

The “war on poverty” heralded a dramatic shift of the role of the Federal Government in our lives, and I am not sure that everyone understands this. I certainly did not until I read this rather remarkable article. Now, rather than building infrastructure, whose expenditure is limited, Uncle Sam now gives out free money to the “needy”, whose demands are infinite. AFDC, food stamps, Medicare and Medicaid, welfare, SSI, ad nauseum. The problem is that these things are consumed immediately. Our descendants will not benefit from this type of spending, but they will foot the bill nevertheless.

Federal Debt and Budget Deficit—the Next Generation

The problem is that once people realize that they can vote themselves money from the public treasury, it becomes impossible to do anything about it (I think it was de Tocqueville who said this; if I am wrong, please sound off in the response box below). Therefore, it is hard to see anything other than ever increasing debt and deficits until the end of time.

In any event, you should read the article.

Hong Kong: “umbrella” revolution?

Well, well, well. We have yet another evil Communist party who has told us a big, fat lie. This time, it is Xi Jing Ping regarding Hong Kong.

Hong Kong?

This region I always regarded as British. What I did not know is that, legally, it belongs to Communist China. The UK merely had a 100 year lease. It expired in 1997, and she was obligated to hand it back to the evil Communists. At the time, the Chi-Comms promised all manner of liberty, freedom, and free elections.

“Umbrella”?

Not surprisingly, HK residents bristled at being told a lie. The promised free elections evaporated like dew in the morning sun. Why “umbrella” revolution? Because Hk'ers use umbrellas to protect themselves against the tear gas being used by riot police.

Occupy Central

This is the name of the group of the HK residents who are protesting against the evil Chinese Communists. They are a ragtag group of professionals and students and so forth. They are doing their best to be peaceful in the best Gandhi tradition. Like “Occupy Wall Street”, they aim to shut down the downtown business district in an act of peaceful civil disobedience.

Hong Kong: the Next Generation

I wish I could say that the brouhaha over HK would move the Communists to sanity, but I cannot. The trouble the evil Chinese Communists have had about their military occupation of Tibet and Mongolia has not moved the Standing Committee, and I have no hope that similar problems over Hong Kong will move them either. I fear that Hong Kong will be yet another victim crushed beneath the jackboot of Communism.  

Why the Obama Foreign Policy is in Smithereens

Yes, I know: you are confused, frustrated, and downright bamboozled by the Obama foreign policy. There are any number of reasonable adjectives have been applied thereupon.

Once you figure it out, however, it becomes not only understandable by rather unsettling.

The World According to O

The global foreign policy influence of the US is rather ubiquitous. It is arrogant and destabilizing.

The Solution According to O

If I reduce the temperature of US foreign policy, the world will be safer and more tranquil.

The Result

Not. According to an old Greek saying: nature abhors a vacuum (Aristotle). In the absence of US influence, any number of tin-horn dictators have arisen to fill th void: Xi Jing Ping, Vladimir Putin, IS/ISL/ISIS, Al Qaeda, and Tweety Bird.

O Foreign Policy: the Next Generation

It is difficult to see any future thereof. Sorry 'bout that.

What is Humanity?

The effort to distill the essence of humanity has defeated the best minds and thinkers throughout history. Such an effort is doomed to failure from the start. It exposes one to ignominious defeat and ridicule, which is exactly why I shall try. So, here goes nuthin'.

Why Jesus Christ is Important

Yes, he rewrote the compact (hence “testament”, both old and new) between God and Man. As a non-Christian, this not why he is important to me. However, he said: clothe the naked, feed the poor (Matthew 25). Certainly an important principle, regardless of your religion.

The Human Capacity for Compassion

The ability of humans to love and care for other species never ceases to amaze me. We are all know of cats and dogs and goldfish and rabbits: they become a member of our family. Even those who have physical defects or expensive medical problems usually find homes. Those who live in rural places regularly take in orphan wildlife, care for them, and release them back into the wild (assuming they will go: they often view their human caretakers as mom and dad and refuse to be kicked back into nature). 3 internet videos: a dolphin tangled in fishing line approaches a diver for help, a diver frees a whale shark tangled in fishing net, and a deer caught in a landslide on a road patiently waits while humans free it from the mud.

Love Thy Neighbor

The willingness to help one's family and friends is not surprising. What is surprising is that this generosity also extends to one's neighbors. There is no earthly reason for this, as neighbors are merely random, geographic happenstance.

Human Life is Not to be Squandered

A living soul is the most valuable resource we have. Abortion and the death sentence are 2 human institutions that are most regrettable.

The Holocaust: Never Forget

Yes, Nazism is evil and millions of Jews were murdered in cold blood. I believe, however that most people miss an even more important lesson: that rather ordinary humans can, with a small bit of clever prodding, be provoked into committing terrible atrocities against one another.

Music, Music, Music

There are 2 compositions that deserve to outlive the human race:
*Beethoven Symphony #5, 4^th movement: celebrating joy of the spirit
*The Creation, a Rock Cantata (Bobrowitz & Porter): celebrating the joy of the human voice

Romantic Love

Many species mate for life, but humans are not one of them, which makes lifelong devotion and sacrifice for a spouse all the more remarkable. We have all heard anecdotes of a couple married for decades where one spouse dies, and the other follows within weeks.

Generosity

The human institution of anonymous giving, where the donor has no idea who the recipient is, to a charitable organization is another rather remarkable human behavior.

Chivalry

When I was growing up, I was taught to never hit a girl/woman. I am now middle aged and on the cusp of being an old fogy, and still believe this to be proper behavior. In fact, this might be a good touchstone in evaluating a particular culture.

Old People

There is an old saying: you can judge a culture by examining how it treats the elderly. Thusly so.

Humanity—the Next Generation

What lies in store for the human race? Anyone who claims to have the answer is probably a charlatan. However, reviewing the ethics and morals of current day society, humans do not seem to have advanced much beyond Plato, Socrates, and the Golden Age of Greece.

Was Abraham Lincoln a Great President?

When asked, most Americans would say that Washington (for defeating a superior army of British troops) and Lincoln (for defeating the South in the Civil War) are our greatest presidents.

Beg to differ slightly regarding the latter.

Everyone saw the clouds of war brewing on the horizon. When he decided to take our nation to war, he knew that the ground would run red with the blood of American citizens. He knew that he was pitting father against son, brother against brother, friend against friend, and neighbor against neighbor.

At the last minute, the South offered Lincoln a compromise: within 2 generations, slavery would simply disappear. In samurai terms, this would be considered to be a brilliant victory: accomplishing your goal without shedding a single drop of blood.

This was not the course that Lincoln chose. The result: more Americans died than in all other wars combined, before and since.

Malice Toward None

The reason for expressing this admittedly unpopular opinion is the publication of a fabulous new book by Jack Levin, father of the sometimes incendiary talk show host Mark. The subject is Lincoln's Second Inaugural Address.

It is a brief speech, and here is the last paragraph (the full text is easily available):

With malice toward none; with charity for all; with firmness in the right, as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in; to bind up the nation's wounds; to care for him who shall have borne the battle, and for his widow, and his orphan--to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace, among ourselves, and with all nations.

I now know that Lincoln's heart rang true with what he believed to be good and just.

Do I forgive Lincoln?

Almost.

Why You Should Read the Declaration of Arbroath

Huh? The what? Google, it people. Written in 1320, it was a declaration of independence by the Scottish nobility from the English Crown and submitted to Pope John XXII. This astonishing document was unknown to me until a few days ago. It came to my attention from an article in a Scottish newspaper about the impending election to decide if Scotland should, once and for all, be an independent nation.

The reason I mention this, is because it would seem to be the basis for our own Declaration of Independence.

If you are Scots, please forgive my heretical edits and encourage everyone to take the time to download and read the entire document. The full text is easily available from many websites.

…..............................

Declaration of Arbroath [edited]I

...The Britons they first drove out, the Picts they utterly destroyed, and, even though very often assailed by the Norwegians, the Danes and the English, they took possession of that home with many victories and untold efforts; and, as the historians of old time bear witness, they have held it free of all bondage ever since

...The Most Holy Fathers your predecessors gave careful heed to these things and bestowed many favours and numerous privileges on this same kingdom and people, as being the special charge of the Blessed Peter's brother.

Thus our nation under their protection did indeed live in freedom and peace up to the time when that mighty prince the King of the English, Edward, the father of the one who reigns today, when our kingdom had no head and our people harboured no malice or treachery and were then unused to wars or invasions, came in the guise of a friend and ally to harass them as an enemy.

The deeds of cruelty, massacre, violence, pillage, arson, imprisoning prelates, burning down monasteries, robbing and killing monks and nuns, and yet other outrages without number which he committed against our people, sparing neither age nor sex, religion nor rank, no one could describe nor fully imagine unless he had seen them with his own eyes.

But from these countless evils we have been set free, by the help of Him Who though He afflicts yet heals and restores, by our most tireless Prince, King and Lord, the Lord Robert.

He, that his people and his heritage might be delivered out of the hands of our enemies, met toil and fatigue, hunger and peril, like another Macabaeus or Joshua and bore them cheerfully.

...It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself.

...May it please you to admonish and exhort the King of the English, who ought to be satisfied with what belongs to him since England used once to be enough for seven kings or more, to leave us Scots in peace, who live in this poor little Scotland, beyond which there is no dwelling-place at all, and covet nothing but our own.

...Then rouse the Christian princes who for false reasons pretend that they cannot go to help of the Holy Land because of wars they have on hand with their neighbours.

...But how cheerfully our Lord the King and we too would go there if the King of the English would leave us in peace, He from Whom nothing is hidden well knows; and we profess and declare it to you as the Vicar of Christ and to all Christendom.

...To conclude, we are and shall ever be, as far as duty calls us, ready to do your will in all things, as obedient sons to you as His Vicar; and to Him as the Supreme King and Judge we commit the maintenance of our cause, casting our cares upon Him and firmly trusting that He will inspire us with courage and bring our enemies to nought.

May the Most High preserve you to his Holy Church in holiness and health and grant you length of days...

Why the Ferguson Riots Make Me Sad

Because a white cop shot a young black man?

Nope.

Because a black man's civil rights have been violated?

Nope.

Because slavery is showing itself to still be endemic to US culture?

Nope.

Because whites are still suppressing blacks?

Nope.

Because racism is raising its ugly head again?

Nope.

A Chronology

1. A white cop shoots a young black man to death.
2. A community protests ensues.
3. The protests persist for several days, attracting anarchists from out-of-town.
4. The media covers same with wall-to-wall coverage.
5. Racial bomb-throwers like Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson come to town, holding hands, singing songs, and holding candlelight vigils.
6. The situation gets worse. Stores are looted and burned down.
7. The TV cameras go home, and things quiet down.
8. The damaged businesses are never rebuilt. Instead, they are bulldozed to the ground, creating empty lots whose lifespan can be measured in decades.
9. With key services and retail businesses essential to everyday life gone, the community slowly dies.

Important Questions

I have 2:

• How will swiping a pair of Air Jordans or taking a case of diapers restore the life of this troubled young man?
• Do you know how many drive-by-shootings there were that same weekend? Of course you don't, cuz black-on-black violence is not deemed to be newsworthy.

Rioters—The Next Generation

I am old enough to have seen this movie many times before. This is not first time this sort of thing has happened, nor, I fear, will it be the last.

Have a nice day.  

The “Global Warming” Gaffe—a chronology

There have been many articles and books explaining the rather fuzzy science behind “global warming”, such as this one titled Climategate. I shall now try to assemble a primer on same, to whet your appetite for further research.

1. A scientist (he will probably want me to mention his name) attempts to assemble data proving that the earth's temperature is rising, and that it is the result of human industrial activity that produces unusually large amounts of CO2.
2. Using an Excel spreadsheet, he consolidates his data and lets the spreadsheet draw a graph. This is the famous (infamous?) “hockey stick” graph. It shows and predicts an alarming increase of global temps.
3. In 1990, the IPCC (a UN related NGO) endorses same. This results in treaties and protocols demanding that the developed (read “rich western”) countries reduce their CO2 emissions.
4. Developing countries, namely India and Communist China, refuse to sign same. They argue that these will retard their economic growth, and demand to be exempted so they can have a chance at the economic brass ring.
5. Developing and emerging countries demand a carbon tax on developed economies that shall be remitted to the former to help them combat carbon pollution.
6. The US refuses to endorse or sign any of these proposals.
7. Although the US has not signed the 1997 Kyoto Protocols, she nevertheless meets the proposed reductions in CO2 emissions. This is the result of “fracking”, since the US becomes awash in cheap natural gas. Coal-fed power plants are shut down in favor of those powered by natural gas. Not only does this reduce costs, it emits less CO2.
8. Communist China powers its industrial growth with electricity generated by coal-fired power plants using obsolete technology that generates more pollution than American ones. As a result, she generates greater amounts of CO2 than the US, despite the fact that Red China produces way less stuff (i.e. GDP) than the US.
9. An independent researcher is given access to the spreadsheet that produced the original “hockey stick” graph, and discovers several mathematical errors.
10. At some point, proponents of global warming become concerned, and change the phenomena's name to “climate change”.
11. Accurate thermometers, much less temperature records, are at most a few decades old. The spreadsheet has global temperatures that date back centuries. It turns out that the original researcher used tree rings as a proxy to estimate historical temperature data. Botanists point out that the main influence on tree rings are: nitrogen availability in the soil and (drum roll please...) rainfall, not ambient air temperature.
12. Clever observers (ahem...yours truly) realize that the original researcher has been the victim of a well documented human fallacy known as “confirmation bias”. That is, accepting only that data that confirms your theory, and rejecting data that does not fit. This is not the first, nor will it be the last time for this behavior, nor is it limited to scientific matters.
13. Politicians attempt to make hay of this situation. Those who are doubtful of the original hockey-stick graphs are called “science deniers”, attempting to draw an ugly parallel to “holocaust deniers”.

Global Warming—The Next Generation

it is quite possible that anthropomorphism is causing global warming. It is still a valid hypothesis, and shall remain so until solid scientific evidence proves that either: human industrial activity does not increase CO2 levels or that an increase in CO2 does not increase mean global atmospheric temperatures. However, current scientific evidence does not support either proposition.

The Secret Behind My Blogs About the Russia/Ukraine War

You may have noticed the rather large number of entries in this blog about the Ukraine/Russia war (and, no, it is not a civil war). Perhaps you have wondered why they are so pointed. On his radio show on 8/6/14, Mark Levin let the cat out of the bag: Stephen Cohen, Russian History Professor, NYU.

You see, this fellow crystallizes all that is not true about Russia's behavior towards Ukraine. I use his pronouncements as a springboard towards my criticism about Putin and Russia. Every Tuesday, he makes a one hour guest appearance on John Batchelor's radio show. I listen faithfully.

Note to Mr. Batchelor: this is the first and last time I will ever mention your name and that of your esteemed guest in my blog.

Carry on, gentlemen.

Ukraine/Russia War—a Chronology

Russian attempts to carve up Ukraine have recently ground to a halt, but, sadly, reporting by the West has not improved. Therefore, here is what has happened so far.

1. Ukraine economically inches towards the EU, much to the dismay of Russia.
2. Putin snatches victory from the jaws of defeat when he convinces Yanukovich to sign an economic agreement with Russia.
3. Residents of Kiev become angry and protest. Yanukovich becomes fearful, gathers up all his portable wealth and flees to Russia, legally abdicating.
4. With the approval of parliament, Yatsenyuk becomes temporary leader of Ukraine.
5. Russian propaganda claims that neo-fascists have illegally seized control of the Ukraine government. Western media swallows this lie: hook, line, and sinker.
6. Russia seizes Crimea, using a faked pop-election as a fig leaf. Putin proudly proclaims that Crimea is now a legitimate part of Russia.
7. Using partisans, mercenaries, military intel, and paramilitary, Russia tries to destabilize the eastern (Russian speaking) parts of Ukraine, hoping for a political disintegration of Ukraine.
8. Ukraine holds an election and elects Poroshenko leader. The newly reconstituted government responds to the Russian incursion with military force. The situation now resembles war, which it really is.
9. Russian efforts grind to a halt.
10. Russian SAM batteries, which have been shooting down Ukraine military jets, deliberately shoot down a civilian airliner, hoping to blame it on the Ukrainian military. Western media refuse to take the bait, and it boomerangs back on Russia.

Ukraine/Russia War—The Next Generation

This is not a civil war. It is simply a military invasion of Ukraine by Russia, pure and simple. It is no more complicated than that. Revanchism is the watchword (Google it). Review the Russian invasion of Georgia.

What's the Deal With Team Obama's Foreign Policy?

The world is aflame with crises.

• Russia has invaded Ukraine and is shooting down airplanes
• Hamas is firing missiles into Israel from the Gaza Strip (again)
• Syria is in civil war, and the number of casualties has 6 digits
• Islamist terrorists have captured a huge chunk of Iraq, and the country has split apart into 3 pieces
• rebel groups have clobbered oil production in North Africa
• Red China is laying claim to oceans that rightfully belong to her neighbors
• The Taliban have started to reclaim Afghanistan
• Iran is marching towards a nuclear weapon
• North Korea keeps test launching ballistic missiles capable of hitting Japan and South Korea

Yet, O is strangely quiescent. Why?

Cuz he genuinely does not care.

Look at the activities O normally engages in:

• golf
• concerts at the White House
• vacations
• fund raising

Nose to the wheel, shoulder to the grindstone? Not O. He just does not want to. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, it really is that simple. Of the few concrete actions that he has taken, he simply takes the easy way out: signing an executive order to boycott Russia or screaming at the Israeli Prime Minister over the phone to surrender (now can I go golfing, Valerie Jarrett?). More than one journalist/commentator has commented that O, like Nero, is fiddling while Rome burns. I find this simile to be quite apropos (c'mon, folks, just Google the words).

Have a nice day.

Solving the Ukraine Crisis: Tell Putin to Stand Down

To wit:

1. Give back the Crimea to Ukraine. And, do not give me this nonsense that the pop-election legitimizes Russia's seizure of sovereign Ukraine territory.
2. Stop egging-on the Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the East. Putin and the Russian press are doing their best to destabilize this region, hoping that it will blow up and disintegrate. He figures it is to his advantage, cuz he gets to pick up the pieces.
3. Stop supplying weapons (like the SA-11), intel, and logistical support to the rebels. Withdraw your military intel officers.

Here are my observations.

• No, I do not expect Putin to do any of these things, short of his being hit by a bus (metaphorically, of course).
• Putin is making trouble making now, cuz he senses weakness in the West Wing. It is difficult to disagree with this judgment. Judge O's reaction: puny sanctions and harsh words. Big, fat, hairy deal.
• I am annoyed at those who repeatedly claim that this is a civil war. It is no such thing. It is a military incursion by one sovereign country, Russia, into another, Ukraine.
• We need a US president who will be fair but firm. Obama is not such a man, and neither is McCain.
• Ukraine is in deep hock to, you guessed it, Russia. They owe Russian nat-gas companies $billions. So, if the West gives economic aid to Ukraine, it will go directly into the pockets of Gazprom and friends. Neither Ukraine nor the EU can survive w/o Russian nat-gas.
• The EU is being of no help. The Baltic States and Poland are cranking up their defense budgets. Merkel speaks fluent Russian, and is a personal friend to Putin. Yet, their response is just as feckless as O.

Ukraine—The Next Generation

I get the feeling that none of this will have a happy ending. Hang onto your hats, Ukraine's troubles are just beginning.

Dear President Putin: please stop shooting down airplanes

Airplane #1

There is no way you can fudge your way past this one. A Ukrainian Su-25 jet fighter was shot down in a dogfight with a Russian Su-29 fighter that had violated Ukraine airspace. This is settled fact.

Airplane #2

Your military shot down a Ukraine transport plane An-26 with a missile that originated from Russian airspace. The press releases I read did not specify if this was from a jet or a ground-based system.

Airplane #3

Your buds have just shot down a civilian passenger Boeing 777,  Malaysian Airlines MH17, with almost 300 lives now lost. Now, look: it was flying at 33,000 feet. This requires a sophisticated military-grade SAM antiaircraft system operated by seasoned military personnel. You cannot pass this off as a bunch of vodka-inspired rebels firing an RPG at a contrail. It was shot down by a Buk ("beech" tree) M1 missile system. It shot down the 777 with an SA-11 SAM, and was seen crossing the border back into Russia that night. 

Airplanes #4 & #5

Two Ukrainian Su-25 fighter planes were shot down by SAMs. They were flying at 17,000 feet, well out of range of shoulder-fired SAMs. So, Vlad, please: no fudging by claiming that they were shot down by MANPADS smuggled in from a source other than Russia.

Please stop.

What Really Happened in Benghazi? Secret Agent Edition

On September 11, 2012, the US Embassy in Benghazi, Libya was attacked by Muslim extremists. 4 people were killed, including Ambassador Stevens. The true story of what happened has yet to emerge. That, coupled with the curious lack of response of Team Obama to this emergency, makes one quite suspicious. I have heard yet another possibility.

1. Saudi Arabia (Sunni) is at war with Iran (Shia). Saudi Arabia sees the possible defeat of Syria under Assad as a way to defeat Iran.
2. The Saudi Royal Family has pull within the US Dept of State. Under their influence, the US along with Turkey and Saudi Arabia supply aid to the rebels in Syria.
3. The rebels shoot down a few Syrian jet fighters, and this makes the news. Team Obama, however, grows fearful that this clandestine aid, which does not have Congressional approval, is going to publicly backfire on them. CIA director Petraeus and Ambassador Stevens are assigned the task of tamping down the operations until after the upcoming presidential elections.
4. Ambassador Stevens has a meeting with Turkish officials to make sure that this temporary suppression is understood.
5. Elements of Turkish Intelligence is in contact with Sunni rebel groups, including ISIS. They leak word of this meeting. With detail of this meeting in hand, they attack the US Embassy where the meeting is being held.

Is this version true? GOK. Many accuse Team Obama of Machiavellian behavior, and this certainly qualifies. However, I find it difficult to believe that Team Obama has the intellectual horsepower to emulate Machiavelli.

Where in the World is the Chinese Navy? 9 Red Lines

First, I shall require you to do some homework. Go to Google Images, and search for “9 dashed line south china sea”. You will see an oceanic map. There are some coastal countries and a whole bunch of island countries. In the middle, there is a label: South China Sea, and a red circle encompassing most of it.

Maritime Law

Every country that has a coast has an economic zone of influence that extends out into the ocean. You are not suppose to gather economic resources from this zone without the permission of the owning country.

The question arises: what happens when there are islands with overlapping zones? Well there is all manner of negotiations and treaties and agreements.

China's 9 Red Lines

In the South China Sea, there are many overlapping zones. There is long and tiring history of negotiations, and a rather complex web of agreements that carefully divvy up this sea.

Along comes China, unilaterally claiming economic control of whole kit n' caboodle. This certainly seems like a strategic mistake. This action seems to have provoked a defensive league of the local nations who previously would have nothing to do with each other.

Why?

The answer is easy.

Oil.

You see, China is powered mostly by coal, and this has created a serious pollution problem. The South China Sea has humongous oil and natural gas reserves, and China covets it. The Chinese Politburo is in deep panic over the air pollution problem, and are desperate for alternatives, including natural gas and oil. This is also why they are heavily subsidizing solar cell manufacturers and building several dozen nuclear reactors.

An Old Saying

In the book All the President's Men, there is a bit of valuable wisdom: follow the money. In this case, I would say: follow the oil.  

Russian War Atrocities Against Ukraine

Well, well, well. To quote an old saw, now I have heard everything. The latest bit of nonsense accuses Ukraine of war atrocities.

OUR STORY SO FAR

Ukraine was happily sitting on a park bench, minding her own business, chewing gum and blowing bubbles. Along comes Vlad the Impaler, bopping her over the head with a yellow pine 2 x 4.

CRIMEA

And another thing. I am getting sick and tired of people saying: whoa, Nellie, Crimea is now a legitimate part of Russia. They had a vote about this, after all.

Stuff and nonsense.

This island vacation playground is a part of Ukraine until Kiev formally concedes it to a foreign power. Ukraine has done no such thing.

IN WAR, PEOPLE DIE

This is an unavoidable fact, no matter how noble or honorable your intentions. Russia is conducting war against Ukraine, and people are dying. Certainly regrettable, but unavoidable. All of the blood in this war is on Russia's hands, not Ukraine's. To stop the bloodshed, all Russia has to do is give back what it has illegally taken, and then withdraw her forces, both military and paramilitary. Somehow, I do not think this will happen.

FINAL WORD

To think that Ukraine is the only one committing war atrocities makes sense only if you think that Russian lives are more valuable than Ukrainian ones.

Please tell me that this is not so.

A dark shadow is casting itself upon the soul of this world, and it has a name: Vladimir Putin. I am reasonably sure that Ukraine would rather be blowing bubbles and kisses rather than artillery shells.

Why Iraq Is In Civil War

Observing the apparent collapse of Iraq. It has occurred to me that the coverage of this by the Western press is not adequate. Unless you truly understand Islamic internal politics, you have no chance of understanding the ISIS military offensive in Iraq.

OK, deep breath. I will explain such to the best of my knowledge.

There are 3, irreconcilable forces in Islam: Sunni, Shia, and Kurd. All countries and armies and forces and terrorist groups are one of these, and there are no “moderates” who straddle more than one of these. Never the twain shall meet. When Khameni says “death to America”, he means it literally. He shall personally stick a knife in my or your back given half a chance (even though I am neither Christian nor Jewish).

Nevertheless, Islam views Western Christians as the “great unwashed masses”, who are not civilized and have never had the glory of hearing the true words of Allah. A Muslim views someone who is a member of a different Muslim sect as an apostate, a truly great sin an order of magnitude worse than being a Jew or Christian. Even in Christianity, in the New Testament, apostasy is the only unforgivable sin. In other words, you have heard the true word and have turned your back on same.

Next, let us review the Muslim political map of Iraq. From Baghdad and going south, Iraq is Shia. Northwest of Baghdad is Sunni. Northeast is Kurdistan, a semi-autonomous Kurdish province of Iraq that is giving the surrounding Shia and Sunni countries a bad case of heartburn.

Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq and was Ba'ath, which is Sunni. He was from the Sunni Northwest. Sunnis are in the minority, and he suppressed the Kurds in the Northeast and Shia in the South. Bush militarily invaded and toppled Hussein. He installed a majority Shia government, that is al-Maliki. In turn, he is oppressing the Sunnis and Kurds. ISIS is a Sunni force starting in the Northwest and heading south towards Shia Baghdad.

Now, from this viewpoint, the Sunni ISIS victories in Shia Iraq (al-Maliki) is simply another chapter in the never ending Muslim civil war. The more things change, the more they stay the same. It is not beyond the pale to think that ISIS has backing from Turkey (Sunni) and Saudi Arabia (Sunni).

Iraq – The Next Generation

It is difficult for me to imagine that the current change in Iraq has any geopolitical significance. Yes, I know: Iraq exports 3m bbl of oil per day, but much of it goes to China. ISIS, if it conquers the Shia south with its oil wells, has no intention of allowing export of oil. Still, does it matter to the West if the government of Iraq believes that the true inheritance of Mohammad are his descendants (Shia) or the religious council that he appointed (Sunni)? ICYW, most Muslims globally are Sunni.   

Dear President Putin, It Is All Your Fault [an open letter]

Ummm...Vlad, can I speak to you for a minute (may I call you Vlad? I hope so, cuz I know that you can use a friend right now)?

I know that, right now, you are having problems in Ukraine. But, you know, you have no one to blame but yourself.

I understand very well that you have great feelings for Ukraine. You view her as really a part of Russia. I know a wee bit of history, and I can say that I empathize. You want her back, and I do not blame you for your this.

I also understand very well that from your point of view, everything worth doing is done from the top down, not from the bottom up. Clapping someone on the shoulder and treating him to a brewskie and a bowl of nachos is not your style, but there is an old saying that you can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. Sometimes, it is easier to get someone to do what you want by tickling and teasing her rather than by hitting her over the head with a 2-by-4.

OK, now look what you have done. You want Ukraine snuggled in your arms like a little girl, but instead, she has fled into the arms of her new boyfriend (EU economic pact). You stole her purse (Crimea), and are trying to hack into her bank account (Eastern Ukraine). Did you really think that she would react any other way? You want her notes to you to say “xoxoxo”, not “f*ck u”.

Dude, it is never too late to kiss and make up. Give her back her purse, and take out some loose bills in your pocket to put into her bank account (cancel the debt to Gazprom and pay generous compensation to the families of every person who has been killed in Ukraine). Take her horseback riding, or at least for a ride in one of those nifty new tanks (T99). But, for cryin' out loud, wear a shirt.

Well, I hafta take a leak. Good luck, dude.

China's Strategic Military Mistake?

Far be it for me to defend Communist Chinese military aggression, but I wonder.

The Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Chinese Party (PSCCCP) sure looks like they have miscalculated. Buzzing Japanese surveillance planes, and playing chicken with US Navy vessels. Violating the economic zone of her neighbors. This belligerence seems to have provoked a defense league. Countries that have never had anything to do with one another (India, Vietnam, Japan, Philippines) are now cooperating for the first time in history.

Think for a moment: Communist China is pumping oil from Africa, Iraq, and (potentially) Canada. Add in the recent deal to import natural gas from Russia. All of the ocean territory seized by CC have one thing in common: oil. CC is resource hungry.

I believe that the motivating force behind CC foreign policy is the same one that motivated Bush-the-son's:

oil

It made for messy and difficult foreign policy, and it could be that CC is going down the same road. If so, it will lead to equally tragic consequences.

OK, this is my analysis. May I go out and play now?

What Really Happened in Benghazi?

To review, the US Embassy in Benghazi was attacked by Jihadists. 4 Americans were killed, including the ambassador. The attack went on for 12 hours, but there was no military response or attempt to rescue. There is a new book, Dark Forces by Timmerman, that presents a new viewpoint.

Whenever something bad happens, say a terrorist attack on a US embassy, all sorts of machinery goes into motion automatically. None of these occurred in Benghazi. The thought was that O issued a stand-down order, as such a lack of response could only have come from the West Wing. This book says that this did not occur. Rather, O never gave the green light.

It seems that Hillary Clinton, then SecState, was the one who gave numerous stand-down orders, suppressing any sort of US response by intelligence forces, military, or whatever. She was also the one who invented the fiction that the terrorist attack was caused by a goofy YouTube video that no one saw.

OK, put yourself in O's shoes. There is a serious terrorist attack, and it is your big chance to come to the rescue and be hailed by the press as a hero. However, you have a doofus SecState issuing all manner of stand-down orders saying everything is alright and that things are under control. Under these circumstances, it is understandable that O never gave the green light. It also means that the other suspicion, that Valerie Jarrett was responsible, may not be true either.

This book may not be true, but it makes more sense than the current theories buzzing around like a fly in an empty room. There is certainly another shoe to drop in this puzzling case, and this book may or not be it. Nevertheless, it warrants your attention.  

The Iraqi Army Collapses: Muslim Armageddon? ISIS?

OK, we have Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) wreaking havoc in Iraq. It is quite surprising, and very dangerous. Keep in mind that, at this point, we are still in the fog-of-war. We do not know all the facts, and should not pass judgment just yet. I should say that all of this is downright nonsensical.

What we have is an apparently invincible force. This obscure group has blitzkrieged its way through Iraq in a way that would make the Nazi Army proud. They have rapidly and easily captured city after city heading south towards Baghdad. They now posses American military hardware, not to mention $100s millions of captured moola. They are ruthless and bloodthirsty, executing “enemies” left and right in cold-blood. 4 American-trained divisions (I have also heard that 2 divisions) of the Iraqi Army simply melted away: they threw down their uniforms and guns and hardware, and simply ran. Civilians are fleeing in their wake, creating a huge refugee problem for neighboring countries, especially Kurdistan in the northeast.

On the other hand, the videos I have seen show what seems to be gang-bangers, not an organized force of seasoned, regular military. They are riding around in the backs of pickup trucks waving rifles and flying the black flag. This might a case of the civil war in Syria spilling over into Iraq, but they crossed the border from Turkey (Sunni). They seem to be Sunnis (shades of Saudi Arabia Wahhabism), heading for the Samarra Dome, a cherished symbol of Shia, so this might be the start of the penultimate Shia-Sunni war. ICYW, Saddam was a Sunni (from northwest Iraq) suppressing a mostly Shia Iraq; the US installed a Shia government (al-Maliki). Qudz, the Iranian security force, seems to be in Baghdad to shore up municipal defenses. I have heard the chair of the House Armed Services Committee state that the reason ISIS is advancing unchecked is that the Iraqi Army does not have US air cover, meaning that ISIS can operate in the open, during daylight, with impunity. Perhaps.

Something is not right about this picture, but I cannot quite put my finger on it. To misquote The Bard, something's rotten in the state of Denmark. Stay tuned, folks: microwave another bag of popcorn, and open a fresh brewskie. This is gonna be a long one.  

Eminent Domain: 3,777 Years of Private Property Rights Go "poof"

I believe the excerpts below are self-explanatory, and require no commentary on my part. 

Code of Hammurabi (1772 BC)

7. If any one buy from the son or the slave of another man, without witnesses or a contract, silver or gold, a male or female slave, an ox or a sheep, an ass or anything, or if he take it in charge, he is considered a thief and shall be put to death.

Magna Carta (1215)

28. No constable or other bailiff of ours shall take corn or other provisions from any one without immediately tendering money therefor, unless he can have postponement thereof by permission of the seller.

...

31. Neither we nor our bailiffs shall take, for our castles or for any other work of ours, wood which is not ours, against the will of the owner of that wood.

US Constitution , Amendment V (1797)

No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offence to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.

Kelo v. City of New London (2005)

"Under the banner of economic development, all private property is now vulnerable to being taken and transferred to another private citizen, so long as it is to be upgraded...in the process." (Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Conner, minority opinion).  

Celebrate Good Times! Greatest Tea Party Victory Ever!

Any number of “moderate” political commentators have said the last rites over the corpse of the Tea Party (are you listening, Mr. “B”?). Today, an unknown political rookie from the Tea Party buried Cantor, the House Majority Leader, in the Republican primary in a surprise landslide. It is not often that such a powerful (#2 position in the House hierarchy, if I am not mistaken) incumbent loses in a primary in such spectacular fashion, but it is significant that this occurred in a Republican primary rather than a Democratic one.

The primary:

7th district, Republican primary, Virginia

With 97.5% of precincts reporting:

Brat 55.5%

Cantor 44.5%

Yes, this qualifies as an old-fashioned landslide.

Those of you who are scowling and frowning, I suggest you smile. The Tea Party should not get cocky, but we could be witnessing the dawn of a new era in American politics. It shows that Republicans are not such dumb, gullible lemmings who will vote for anyone whose only qualification is being “electable” (are you listening, Jeb? How about you, Karl?).

I think this bodes well for the future of the Republican Party.

“Trading Private Bergdahl” funniest spoof of all time

First, here is the link:

http://www.madmagazine.com/blog/2014/06/03/barack-obamas-unfortunate-new-movie

Please click the link, as it defies description.

I like one of the comments: if you have lost Mad Magazine, then you have lost America.

Amen.

I made a poster of it, here is how:

1. copy image (it is a 221KB JPEG file) to a USB flash drive
2. take it to your local copy store
3. have it printed, 8.5” x 11” size, color
4. card stock, glossy finish
5. it cost me a measly 80¢
6. put on your wall and laugh

I know, some of you might be tempted to make a stack and sell for fund raising. Do not do it, as you will be violating copyright law. However, tell them how to do it themselves. If I can do it, anyone can do it.

I would be willing to bet you can even make a T-shirt of it.

Thank you, Bill Gaines, wherever you are.

You Are Wrong About California Politics

I have lived here all my life, and over time have heard any variety of political punditry that does not seem to correspond to realpolitk. So, permit me to illuminate with a different light, keeping in mind that I am conservative Republican.

The Middle Class Is Getting Clobbered

I have often heard this, but repetition does not make it true. California tops the list of welfare generosity to the poor, and the gazillionaires in Silicone Valley are getting richer. Therefore, it leaves the “middle class” to get nailed right in the wallet.

Beg to differ.

First, the whole concept of a “middle class” is a Marxist idea: divide and conquer, and set the various classes against each other in economic warfare. Second, this conception misses the forest for the trees. In many ways, the state is hostile towards business in general. Therefore, rather than attracting population and new business, the exact opposite is happening. This is why, in many ways, California is an economic basket case where the opposite should be true.

Brown Is A Terrible Governor

Yes, I know, this is a common opinion, in as much as The Golden State has a tendency to produce solid, conservative chief executives: Reagan, Deukmejian, Wilson (Ahnold, not so much). Nevertheless, the state voters view him favorably as a decent, competent administrator.

Pet Rocks

Along with some coins and pocket lint in my jacket, I found:

• urban planning that encourages re-urbanization into skyscraper-apt buildings
• shiny, high-speed choo-choo train that goes from nowhere (Fresno) to nowhere (Bakersfield), note carefully it does not go from SF to LA
• statewide cap-n-trade
• free tuition to state colleges for illegal aliens
• liberal cities (SF/Bay Area, LA) dictating to conservative, rural areas
• goofy water allocation that values bait fish (delta smelt, ESA) over feeding humans (agriculture in the Central Valley)
• one of the highest state income and sales taxes of all other states
• state employee retirement systems that are in deep, statutory-debt doo-doo
• Democrat super-majority in both houses, meaning they can pass anything they want without any Republican support
• the melted remnants of a Hershey Bar
• an expired pizza coupon (oh, darn...)

It is important to note that, despite what outsiders may think, these gee-gaws exist because they maintain significant support among Californians.

Monterey Shale

The Golden State is sitting atop one of the largest reserves of shale gas/oil. They also oppose fracking based on environmental concerns: how foolish. Fortuitous. Umm...you see, major oil companies have drilled test wells. Based on the results, the EIA has reduced the amount by 95%. Turns out that the geologic formations in the Monterey Shale are different, and are not accessible using current fracking techniques. Recovery will have to wait for the future. Eastern Europe and China face the same problem with some of their oil shale reserves.

Kashkari Is A Bushie

Yes, this is the bluest of the blue states. Nevertheless, do not think that this has nudged the state Republicans to the center. Like other states, Republicans in this state has its share of conservatives who bristle at the Bushie/Rockefeller/Rove wing. For these, Kashkari was the TARP guy for Obama, another red mark against him.

California, Here I Come (or not...)

I am not happy with much of the political goings-on in The Golden State. Nevertheless, I find them to be reasonably congruent with the residents. I often do not agree, but Californians at large do. Like the old saying: you are entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts.  

Why Did Obama Release The Taliban Prisoners?

OK, folks, it is time once again for, “wild guess of the week”.

Huh?

O gave up 5 top Taliban generals from Guantanamo. In return, he received one American soldier widely believed to be a deserter. The US sure seems to have gotten the short end of the stick. Surely O knew of all this beforehand (and please, POTUS, none of this nonsense about not knowing the facts until you read about them in the NYT). Very puzzling indeed.

Leave No One Behind?

Gen McChrystal has defended this trade using the old saw that the US military does not leave people behind. Granted.

Think About O's Childhood

Remember that O has his youngster roots firmly planted in Islam. His adult view of the world might be deeply influenced as such. In this case, he might not view Islam, radical or otherwise, as a threat to Western Civilization, Christianity, Judaism, Democracy, or the US. Witness his refusal to fight The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Assad in Syria, Afghanistan, or Iraq.
Therefore, the prisoners he released were nothing more than political prisoners. What could be more righteous? O might think that, in his own mind, he did the right thing, regardless of what the world may think. It is a win, win, win all around.

Here You Go

Thank you for playing Gooses Wild.

Ukraine Elections! Celebrate Good Times!

[ICYW, the quote is from “Celebration” by Kool and the Gang]

Well, well, well. Ukraine had a successful election.

Huzzah!

The ink wasn't even dry on the page from the inkjet printer announcing the election, when the naysayers came out of the woodworks. Permit me to do a little color commentary.

Poroshenko Won—Get Over It

Many are critical of Mr P. Perhaps this skepticism is justifiable, perhaps not. Nevertheless, he won the election fair and square in a surprise landslide. He garnered not just a plurality, but an absolute majority. He is now the legitimate president of Ukraine, whether you like it or not.

Russia Is In The Wrong

The polemic is that Putin's adventurism is being caused by NATO approach towards Russian borders. Hogwash. The USSR collapsed, and there are those who dream wistfully of past glory. Many Russians, and not just Putin, support a return to days of yore.

Putin Is Stalin Redux

I find the behavior of both to be similar: they will lie, cheat, and steal to get their way. People die? Not a problem. They rule from the top down: do as I say, or else. Putin is not the knight in shining armor who will ride in on his trusty white steed to save Ukraine from itself.

It Is OK To Be Pro-Russian

But, please, at least do us the dignity of admitting as such. Do not pretend to be a neutral observer with no viewpoint or opinion.

Sowing Instability and Confusion

At this point, it would be wise to remind ourselves of Russian strategy in Ukraine. They seek to cause maximum chaos, so that Ukrainians do not which direction is up and which is down, even if this means sending in Russian military intelligence to kill pro-Russian Ukrainians.

Ukraine The Next Generation

Let us hope that the successful election is the beginning a new chapter in Ukrainian history.

Dona nobis pacem.

Al Gore—Malthus Raises His Ugly Head Again

Thomas Who?

Thomas Robert Malthus was an English cleric and was, among other disciplines, an economist whose career spanned the early 19^th century. His work, An Essay on the Principles of Population, postulated that the earth's resources were static, but that the growth of the human race is dynamic. Therefore, he concluded that sooner or later we would all die off from disease and starvation. This rather regrettable (and totally wrong) theory has come up several times in history, and proven wrong each and every time. Al Gore is merely the latest in a long line wearing the Malthus cartoon head.

Sci-fi: Truth is Stranger Than Fiction

When I was a teenager (yes, folks, there was such a time), I read 2 books. The God Machine (Caidin, 1969), and Colossus - The Forbin Project ( D. F. Jones, 1970). They both postulated the existence of a super-human computer that threatens mankind (yes, this was where the idea of the Terminator move series was cloned from). This super-computer synthesized all the knowledge of mankind and cured cancer (“Watson”, anyone?). Later in the book, the computer becomes rebellious and (I paraphrase) refused to participate in the rape of earth's natural resources (something about mining the oceans' floor for minerals). The problem is, I am not sure which novel contains this plot twist. Does this principle sound familiar to anyone?

Eliot Janeway

This dude was forever forecasting doom and gloom, so much so that he acquired the nickname “Calamity Janeway”. The family will collapse, agriculture will collapse, the US economy will collapse, the world banking system will collapse (well, OK, he was kinda right on this one, but not for the reason he postulated), the price of copper and iron will be 10x that of gold. The problem here, is that he calculated dates for these various catastrophes, and was 100% wrong each and every time.

Club of Rome

In 1974, this think tank published The Limits to Growth. It postulated that a human population could grow indefinitely, and requires consummate unlimited economic growth. This, they claimed, was impossible. Well, OK. However, they published a series of books. By the time they got around to publishing their last book, they almost repudiated their original predictions and economic equations.

Malthus, The Next Generation

In 1992, Al Gore published Earth in the Balance. He postulates that humans are fouling their nest. Unless something is done now, the earth will cease to be able to support the human race. By now, this political stance should be annoyingly familiar.

Al Gore was not the first, nor will he be the last, to raise aloft the ugly visage of Malthus as his standard. I realize full well that fans thereof will not be converted by my skepticism. I hope that, at least, I have educated you about the genesis of this regrettable and totally wrong opinion.

Ukraine War for Dummies

(with apologies to the publisher of the real “For Dummies” book series).

Much to my annoyance, there is much disinformation (in the old Soviet tradition) about same making rounds. I modestly herewith attempt to dispel such myths.

Likes, Damn Lies, and the Russian News Media

Back, oh so many decades ago as an undergrad at UC Berkeley, I took a Russian language class during the bad-old-days of the old USSR. There were 2 newspapers: Izvestia (“information”) and Pravda (“truth”). The joke went: Izvestia nye Pravda, Pravda nye Izvestia (information is not truth, truth is not information). I find the current behavior of Russian media to be not dissimilar to that of the old USSR media.

It Is Not a Civil War

This is not a conflict between the pro-Ukraine Kiev, and pro-Russian eastern provinces. What we have here is a simple, old-fashion military invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

There Are No Ukrainian “Fascists”

The native Ukrainians who toppled the pro-Russian Yanukovich government have been depicted (by the Russian Press) as fascists, e.g. neo-Nazis. Factually incorrect. Those few “fascists” that have been identified turn out to be Russian Military Special Ops.

The “Election” Results Are Faked

These “pop” elections are organized, coordinated, supervised, overseen, ballots counted, and results announced by Russian Military Intelligence. Pro-Russian votes were announced at 96.7%. You be the judge.

Regular Russian Military Forces Are Massed on the Ukraine Border

Analysts estimate that there are some 40,000 regular Russian troops massed along Ukraine border. They are conducting military drills so that, upon Putin's order, they can conquer all Ukraine quickly before Kiev knows what hit them. Not unlike Hitler's “blitzkrieg” during WWII.

Putin Also Covets the Baltic States, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus

It is to his advantage that not 1 in a 100 readers of this blog are able to accurately identify these countries on a map. These are previous USSR “satellite” countries, living under Soviet jackboots. He wishes to place them under his control once again.

Economic Sanctions Ain't Gonna Do Nuthin”

Western response to this military invasion seems to be limited to economic sanctions. These doo-hickeys did not stop N Korea from going nuclear, is not slowing down Iran's march to the nuclear bomb, and will be equally ineffective in changing current Russian military behavior.

Team Obama Response Is Feckless

There are many who say that O has no foreign policy, or that they cannot figure it out. Beg to differ. O is easy to understand. He makes a rather firm and belligerent speech, accompanied by concrete actions (even though these actions are ineffective pin-pricks). In his mind, he has addressed the problem, and, therefore, solved the crisis and moves on.

Real Ukrainians Could Care Less About Russia

Russian-speaking eastern Ukrainians are not champing at the bit to break away from that evil Kiev, and longing to rejoin “mother Russia”. They could care less if the occupant of the presidency is Yanukovich or Yatsenyuk. Having had a taste of democracy, they only wish to be left alone to live their lives in peace and, hopefully, prosperity.

The EU Could Care Less About Russia

Many of you are not old enough to remember the “Shining Path”. These were a powerful group of Marxist guerrillas (can you name the country?). The US response was indifference: we did not crank up our military response or send forces southwards to defeat the rebels. We viewed it as a rather distant conflict that did not really concern us, so we ignored it. Western parts of the EU have a similar yawn regarding the Ukraine War. However, former Soviet satellite countries bordering Russia are on alert and, to the best of their limited ability, strengthening military spending.  

Ukraine War Just Got Worse

Russia is withdrawing! Huzzah! The war is over!

Not so fast, buckaroo. Let us examine the facts.

Pro-Russian Belief

Russia Is Pulling Back Its Troops.

The Truth

Not. US officials are continually quoted, saying that they see no evidence of a Russian military withdrawal along the Ukraine border. Keep in mind that Putin has made such statements/promises before. The second he figures it is to his advantage, he will go back on his word.

Pro-Russian Belief

Russia Is Not Interested In Annexing Eastern Ukraine.

The Truth

Russia is very interested in annexing Eastern Ukraine. She produces 500 helicopter engines annually for Russia, and also does refurb/maintenance on nuclear-tipped Russian ICBMs. All this has to be paid to Ukraine in cold, hard cash. Making these industries Russian property means she would get these arms free, quite a feather in Putin's cap.

Pro-Russian Belief

It's The Cold War 2.0.

The Truth

Some commentators are bemoaning that US/NATO is embarking on another 'Cold War', complete with the threat of nuclear war without due consideration or public debate. Nonsense. What we have here is a simple, old fashioned case of a stronger country stealing territory from a weaker neighbor. It has happened before, and will happen again.

Pro-Russian Belief

Russia Is Easing Tensions By Delaying “Elections”.

The Truth

Factually incorrect. Putin wants a delay, because the GRU is unable, at this point, to engineer an electoral 'victory' favoring alliance with Russia.

Pro-Russian Belief

Economic Sanctions Against Russia Threatens XOM And BP.

The Truth

This one might actually be true. However, the health of the economic future of Russia lies in the ever increasing export of oil. Putin needs these gigantic oil companies to pump out Russian oil. Locking them down is, as we say, “cutting off your nose to spite your face”.

Pro-Russian Belief

NATO Moves Are Provoking Russia.

The Truth

Recall Newton's Third Law of Motion: for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. NATO is simply a self-defense reaction to decades of Soviet/Russian aggression, and Putin knows this very well. He is not a scared, little bunny-rabbit. Putin is just using NATO as bogeyman so he can demagogue the situation. Even the Chinese have picked up on this rhetorical technique.

Pro-Russian Belief

This is just a temporary dust-up: move on, nothing to see here.

The Truth

The effort to keep Ukraine independent and not become a Russian satellite country is just beginning. This is the start of a task that will last years, and it is easy to see the conflict taking a decade or more.  

Ukraine: It is War

Russia has militarily invaded Ukraine. That Putin is smart enough to use GRU operatives (Google it) and partisans crossing the border rather than SU29s and T80s is besides the point. The invasion has nothing to do with NATO expansion eastward. Russia has been lying in ambush, stalking her pray like a panther. She strikes now, cuz she smells weakness in the West Wing. Putin is risking war, both conventional and nuclear, and knows it very well. However, the calculation is that, in the end, she will get her way. It is difficult to disagree. The rather bellicose response by Team Obama is a sign of weakness, not strength.

The Military Situation

I could not find very much info.

• US/NATO has moved token forces (jet fighters, airborne units) to the Russian border.
• Ukraine forces, such as they are, are trying to regain her territory from Russian forces. This is being made more difficult, cuz the GRU is using Ukrainian citizens as human shields.
• Russia is marshaling conventional military forces on the Ukraine border, but, so far, are staying put.

Now What Do We Do?

Russia is a bully, arrogant, or both. It is difficult to say. However, the US response must focus on Ukraine as the injured party, rather than placating Russia.

• Ukrainian entry into NATO should be fast-tracked somehow. Then, aid, both monetary and military, can be given to Kiev.
• Ukraine must repudiate her debt to Gazprom. She owes something like $15b. However, Russia is now the enemy. It is not logical to give money to your enemy. Yes, I know, deliveries of natural gas to Ukraine and Europe will be cut off. However, there are several months to find a solution before the cold, snowy winter sets in.
• Russian GRU and partisans must be pushed back over the Russian border where they came from, and be prevented from coming back.
• Ukraine needs time to heal the wounds inflicted upon her by Russia.
• Ukraine must have democratic elections, so she will have a legitimate President and Parliament for all Ukraine, including Crimea and the West.

Ugh...

The most disgusting thing I have heard about the Ukrainian War is: Crimea is now a legitimate part of Russia. Yeah, right. In the same way that the Sudetenland became a legitimate part of Nazi Germany.  

Happy Birthday, Israel!

Go ahead, blow out the candles, all 66 of them.

The last 3 SecStates, Dept of State machinery, and at least 2 US presidents I can name, all are hostile towards Israel from a foreign policy standpoint. I will stop short of calling them antisemitic, but the thought is a persistent one.

Ironically, Muslims, say a Palestinian, actually has more rights and liberty and freedom in Israel than in an Islamic country. Why? Cuz that is just how Israel is.

Nevertheless, let us raise our glass, and make a toast for the continued existence, strength, and influence of Israel in an otherwise chaotic part of our world. To Infinity and Beyond!

Ukraine: Civil War, or Russian Mistake?

I am growing just a wee bit annoyed at Russia and her autocratic czar Putin. So, here goes nothin'.

A Sovereign Country Violated

Like it or not, Ukraine is a sovereign country. No amount of historical tap dancing will change this fact. Do not give me this nonsense about Krushchev/Crimea, historical ties between Kharkiv and Moscow, the East is with Putin, pop elections, or unwashed gym socks. To quote an old saw, you are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts. Russia has militarily crossed the border of an independent country, and she must be made to pay. Nothun' comes for free. Ukraine should defend herself, but essentially has a military that barely exists, and can do nothing to defend herself against Russia, and Putin knows this very well. In fact, the cautious military moves by Kiev is definitely to her credit, and demonstrates who is the adult in the room.

The US Is Not To Blame

The public visitation to Kiev by SecState reps is being touted as a serious mistake.

Au contraire.

A public display of support for Kiev is a key act that proves that, yes, we are with you. Russia has blamed all the trouble on US interference. What nonsense, and everyone knows it. This is merely a fig leaf for outright Russian military aggression. Russia stuck her fat, greedy fingers into Ukraine and was caught fare and square, red-handed.

It Is Not Eastern Ukrainians, It Is The GRU

You may have heard stories about municipal buildings being seized, confrontation with civilian police, protests, and random shootings. These are generally blamed on Pro-Russian, Eastern Ukrainian partisans.

What a lie.

In those few cases where the perpetrators have been identified, they turn out to be not Ukrainians, but rather Russian Military Intelligence officers operating clandestinely: GRU. If this sounds unfamiliar to you, perhaps you will recognize their old name: the KGB.

The East is not with Russia; in fact, they could care less.

Poland?

She is howling for Russian blood, justifiably so IMHO. She wants US/NATO armor planted right on the border with Russia. Why? Cuz for a large chunk of her history, Ukraine was actually part of the Duchy of Poland, and they are historical best-buds, not unlike the US and Canada.

The Trip-Wire Concept

The US has placed token forces on Russian borders. So, if Russia invades the Baltic States, and it is a question of not if but when, Putin will have US blood on his hands. Does he have the huevos? We shall see.

The Natural Gas Ballet

Here is the punchline to a not-funny joke: EU/Ukraine and Russia need each other. EU needs the natural gas that Russia supplies, and Russia desperately needs the hard currency from the sale of natural gas to Europe. Neither side can afford to cut off the other.