Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Internal Iranian Politics for Dummies


We cannot defeat our enemy if we do not understand them. Many view Tehran much like we used to view the 'Iron Curtain': opaque and inscrutable. Perhaps, but there are a few things that we can say.

Ignore the Man Behind the Curtain

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is often demonized in the Western press, but his job is kinda like Jay Carney or Hillary Clinton. He is, at best, a mouthpiece who does not exercise independent power. His official title is 'President'. Ali Khamenei ('The Supreme Leader'), with the support of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp, wields the real power. He is the real Wizard of Oz.

Tower of Babel

Observe carefully the rather peculiar machinations of the Chinese Communist Party Politburo, where the court nobles vie for power and influence to become the next king. Thus it is in Tehran. There are many Mullahs, and some do not agree with the current regime and also wish to be Supreme Leader. There are, according to rumor, some who do not think that possession of nuclear weapons is in accordance with the Koran.

Iranian Spring, abandoned...

The Hungarian Revolution of 1956, The Prague Spring of 1968, and now the Iranian Spring of June 2009. All failed, because the United States of America did not come to the aid of freedom-seeking peoples. Perhaps Mr. O abandoned them because he did not wish to anger the Supreme Leader and the IRGC. I remind you, however, that the original overthrow of the Shah occurred in 1979 thanks largely to a national uprising demanding change.

In Conclusion

Take all this with a rather large grain of salt. How might this effect US foreign policy? Dunno. Suggest you seek the wise counsel of John Bolton.  

No comments:

Post a Comment