Thursday, April 4, 2013

What is up with North Korea?


Forgive my mirth, the leader of same (he will probably want me to mention his name) resembles a cartoon character. He/she/it has done some good, old-fashioned saber rattling: threatening to shoot nuclear missiles at S Korea, Japan, and the west coast of the US; conducting amphibious invasion military exercises; moving “missiles” to the east coast; restarting a moth-balled nuclear reactor that can produce military-grade plutonium; test-firing various missiles; and so forth. I wish to make a few curious observations:
  • his military activity could mean that he is under pressure from the military, and nothing more
  • we do not know for sure who is in charge: him, his powerful relatives, residual bureaucrats from his father's era, or the military
  • I am not convinced that the missile arsenal, whose impressive pictures are all over the western press, are accurate, functional, or reliable
  • his bluster is not unlike the behavior of a male insecure about his masculinity
  • I am not convinced that if a missile is launched at Seoul, that it will come anywhere near the intended target
  • there appears to be none of the logistical moves that are prerequisites to a military move against the South
  • Ummm...if you have ever seen satellite photos of the north taken at night, there are virtually no lights, indicating that the electric grid is weak. If we wish to pants the leader and paralyze his military, would it not take the simple bombing of a few power plants?
  • The north is entirely dependent on China for sustenance. Nothing happens that China does not approve of.
Anyway, do not take North Korea and her machinations at face value. Things may not be as they appear.  

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