Friday, August 16, 2013

Egypt – what a mess

I wish to disabuse you of the notion that Egypt's problems are anything but simple or easy. I shall add yet another discordant voice to the cacophony.


Factoid #1 – It's Not Him, It's Us

Do not forget the original, and still valid, reason the anti-Mursi protests began in first place: the economy. Under Mubarak, there was a yawning gulf between the haves and the have-nots. Egyptians voted for the Muslim Brotherhood, cuz they figured any change would help their pocketbooks. Not. MB were totally uninterested in financial stuff. They could care less if the IMF cuts financial aid.


Factoid #2 – The Military Has Strangled Democracy

Not even close. Just cuz there was a vote, does not mean there is democracy. MB, once in power, consolidated power with breathtaking speed. Freedom, liberty, and representative government was not on the menu, but autocracy was. They were trying to construct an old-time tin-horn dictatorship a la sharia. The military is trying to reconstitute a more or less secular country.


Factoid #3 – They Killed The Protesters

Not. Yes, the military killed hundreds (~500), but they were not political protesters a la OWS. The dead were MB partisans: shock troops, foot soldiers, paramilitary, or whatever label you wish to give them. Certainly not innocent bystanders or American-style protesters.


Factoid #4 – They Hate The US

Not exactly: they hate and distrust Obama and his foreign policy minions. Why? Because he cheered rather than jeered when MB seized power. They think (and it is hard to dispute the claim: witness a statement by him that the military should hand back power to the 'democratically' elected 'civilian' government) that “BO” still favors MB, whereas huge swaths of Egyptian society hate the MB in the same way that AQ hates the US.


Factoid #5 – Hey It's A Coup d'Etat And We Should Cut Off Foreign Aid!

Be careful what you wish for. Technically the statement is correct (Congress passed such a law long ago). However, the $$$ we send mainly goes to the military, not the civilian government. Cutting off the aid would be further evidence that “BO” favors MB, further alienating non-MB Egyptians. I would make a reference to the Dance of Shiva, but most Americans have not read the Rig Veda.


Factoid #6 – Sinai: The Boil On Egypt's Hiney

During the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Sadat crossed the Suez with the First Armored Division, Egypt's only major armor force, not to mention her pride and joy. Israel easily cut it off, isolating the unit. Begin could easily have just bombed it into oblivion. However, demonstrating his chivalry, he allowed Sadat to withdraw his tanks back across the Suez unmolested. It was this act that finally persuaded Sadat to sign the historic peace treaty with Israel (which also transferred the Sinai back to Egypt), a peace that has thrived up until the election of Mursi. Sinai is again front and center: with the collapse of the civilian government, assorted and sundry terrorist groups have set up housekeeping there. Therefore, any peace solution will have to include this lawless area in the plan.


Factoid #7 – Aha! So You Think The Military Is Egypt's Savior?

Not even close. True, the military is the moderating force preventing Egypt from descending into the bowels of sharia. Conversely, economic development has never been a priority. The military is simply another force in the Egyptian landscape looking after its own. Like us, Egyptians are not concerned so much with religious orthodoxy as with jobs and economic recovery. Adam Smith and Milton Friedman are just as apropos to Egypt as to the US.


Factoid #8 – Aha...wait: say what?

To quote a previous HedFed:

...if I turn out to be particularly clear, you've probably misunderstood what I've said.
Your head should be spinning with many possibilities, forcing you to sit down for a few moments to regain your balance. This is the truth about Egypt's current problems. No other conclusion is possible. Perhaps you should read the Rig Veda after all.

Correction

Well, my memory is clearly faulty. I skimmed the Rig Veda looking for the specific Hymn(s) that reference the Dance of Shiva, which I always understood to be a cosmic dance of destruction and renewal. Could not find one. That's cuz it is a Tamil concept called Nataraj, and has nothing to do with Rig Veda, which are hymns dedicated to Indra. Sorry 'bout that.

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