Obama to Assad – My Missile is Bigger Than Yours

Well, well, well. Looks like 'ole “BO” is about to make another foreign policy boo-boo, this time in Syria.

REWIND

I have figured out, up to a point, the rules of the “BO” foreign policy:

• never put more boots on the ground
  
• skeddadle the ones you have at maximum speed you can get away with
  
• chuck a few Tomahawk missiles from a couple of Arleigh Burke-class Aegis Destroyers at your strategic target
  
• dust off your hands, and say “done and done”
  
• favor the Muslim Brotherhood, cuz you think they will win in the end
  

WHERE 'YA GOIN? SIT AND HAVE ANOTHER BREWSKIE

Team Obama originally made a mistake by drawing a line in the sand, regarding use of chemical weapons. Assad used them on a dare, TO just backed up and drew another line. This time, he seems determined to use them. The scuttlebutt is that he does not want to topple Assad, but just destroy the CWs.
Congress is not helping: some demand that he “consult” with Congress first, others are jumping up and down, demanding that TO “do something”.
Question: where the CW delivered via missile or Soviet-built fighter? Makes mucho difference. There are doubts that the Assad-regime has technical know-how to deliver CW via missile. If they can only deliver CW via military plane, then simply bombing the few known airfields in Syria might be more effective with little, if any, collateral damage.

RING-A-DING-DING-STOP

This is one case where sitting on his hands might be the most prudent choice. There is no telling what the end result will be: you might just as well spin the wheel-of-fortune. TO apparent plan is bad for several reasons:

• the CW have been scattered about, meaning that destroying them will have some pretty good civilian collateral damage
  
• an attack might simply ratchet up the complicated political tensions, kinda like sticking a mop into a hornets' nest
  
• China, Russia, Iran support Assad. Who knows how they will react when someone shoots at their catspaw
  
• If TO does shoot and accidentally topples Assad, the replacements could be even worse (viz Egypt)
  
• total death toll is already 6 figures, and the refugee number has 7. Not increasing these numbers should be a top priority of any operation. This does not seem to be so with TO.
  
• We will be seen as taking sides again, angering the other side (viz Egypt). Sitting back and letting them self-immolate might not be such a bad idea