Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Al Gore—Malthus Raises His Ugly Head Again

Thomas Who?

Thomas Robert Malthus was an English cleric and was, among other disciplines, an economist whose career spanned the early 19th century. His work, An Essay on the Principles of Population, postulated that the earth's resources were static, but that the growth of the human race is dynamic. Therefore, he concluded that sooner or later we would all die off from disease and starvation. This rather regrettable (and totally wrong) theory has come up several times in history, and proven wrong each and every time. Al Gore is merely the latest in a long line wearing the Malthus cartoon head.

Sci-fi: Truth is Stranger Than Fiction

When I was a teenager (yes, folks, there was such a time), I read 2 books. The God Machine (Caidin, 1969), and Colossus - The Forbin Project ( D. F. Jones, 1970). They both postulated the existence of a super-human computer that threatens mankind (yes, this was where the idea of the Terminator move series was cloned from). This super-computer synthesized all the knowledge of mankind and cured cancer (“Watson”, anyone?). Later in the book, the computer becomes rebellious and (I paraphrase) refused to participate in the rape of earth's natural resources (something about mining the oceans' floor for minerals). The problem is, I am not sure which novel contains this plot twist. Does this principle sound familiar to anyone?

Eliot Janeway

This dude was forever forecasting doom and gloom, so much so that he acquired the nickname “Calamity Janeway”. The family will collapse, agriculture will collapse, the US economy will collapse, the world banking system will collapse (well, OK, he was kinda right on this one, but not for the reason he postulated), the price of copper and iron will be 10x that of gold. The problem here, is that he calculated dates for these various catastrophes, and was 100% wrong each and every time.

Club of Rome

In 1974, this think tank published The Limits to Growth. It postulated that a human population could grow indefinitely, and requires consummate unlimited economic growth. This, they claimed, was impossible. Well, OK. However, they published a series of books. By the time they got around to publishing their last book, they almost repudiated their original predictions and economic equations.

Malthus, The Next Generation

In 1992, Al Gore published Earth in the Balance. He postulates that humans are fouling their nest. Unless something is done now, the earth will cease to be able to support the human race. By now, this political stance should be annoyingly familiar.

Al Gore was not the first, nor will he be the last, to raise aloft the ugly visage of Malthus as his standard. I realize full well that fans thereof will not be converted by my skepticism. I hope that, at least, I have educated you about the genesis of this regrettable and totally wrong opinion.


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