Why Iraq Is In Civil War

Observing the apparent collapse of Iraq. It has occurred to me that the coverage of this by the Western press is not adequate. Unless you truly understand Islamic internal politics, you have no chance of understanding the ISIS military offensive in Iraq.

OK, deep breath. I will explain such to the best of my knowledge.

There are 3, irreconcilable forces in Islam: Sunni, Shia, and Kurd. All countries and armies and forces and terrorist groups are one of these, and there are no “moderates” who straddle more than one of these. Never the twain shall meet. When Khameni says “death to America”, he means it literally. He shall personally stick a knife in my or your back given half a chance (even though I am neither Christian nor Jewish).

Nevertheless, Islam views Western Christians as the “great unwashed masses”, who are not civilized and have never had the glory of hearing the true words of Allah. A Muslim views someone who is a member of a different Muslim sect as an apostate, a truly great sin an order of magnitude worse than being a Jew or Christian. Even in Christianity, in the New Testament, apostasy is the only unforgivable sin. In other words, you have heard the true word and have turned your back on same.

Next, let us review the Muslim political map of Iraq. From Baghdad and going south, Iraq is Shia. Northwest of Baghdad is Sunni. Northeast is Kurdistan, a semi-autonomous Kurdish province of Iraq that is giving the surrounding Shia and Sunni countries a bad case of heartburn.

Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq and was Ba'ath, which is Sunni. He was from the Sunni Northwest. Sunnis are in the minority, and he suppressed the Kurds in the Northeast and Shia in the South. Bush militarily invaded and toppled Hussein. He installed a majority Shia government, that is al-Maliki. In turn, he is oppressing the Sunnis and Kurds. ISIS is a Sunni force starting in the Northwest and heading south towards Shia Baghdad.

Now, from this viewpoint, the Sunni ISIS victories in Shia Iraq (al-Maliki) is simply another chapter in the never ending Muslim civil war. The more things change, the more they stay the same. It is not beyond the pale to think that ISIS has backing from Turkey (Sunni) and Saudi Arabia (Sunni).

Iraq – The Next Generation

It is difficult for me to imagine that the current change in Iraq has any geopolitical significance. Yes, I know: Iraq exports 3m bbl of oil per day, but much of it goes to China. ISIS, if it conquers the Shia south with its oil wells, has no intention of allowing export of oil. Still, does it matter to the West if the government of Iraq believes that the true inheritance of Mohammad are his descendants (Shia) or the religious council that he appointed (Sunni)? ICYW, most Muslims globally are Sunni.