Syria – Islamic Powder Keg About to Shoot Its Load

When it comes to Syria, “BO” is simply sitting on his hands, blissfully pretending that it is simply a regional dispute of little importance to us here in the US, and hoping that you won't notice that it is about to f*ck up the entire Middle East.

The Syrian civil war threatens world political and military stability. Its neighbors are Turkey (Sunni), Israel (Jewish), Iraq (Shiite), Jordan (Hashemite monarchy, but Sunni population), and Lebanon (Sunni, I think). To this date, the number of deaths have 5 digits, and the number of refugees have 6 digits (perhaps 7). Both refugees and terrorists have spilled beyond Syria's borders, threatening the very existence of neighboring countries.

Anyone who claims to understand this hopeless morass is simply lying. It is rather like a game of 3D Chess (Star Trek reference; Google it), where the pieces and boards randomly move around, and where the colors of the pieces also change randomly. I have even heard John Bolton, the smartest person I know of about this, announce Syria to be a hopelessly confusing hotchpotch. However, Balkanization and ethnic cleansing appear to be ongoing, resulting in the carving up of Syria along sectarian lines.

The problem with Western media reports that I have read were written by “journalists” who do not have the faintest understanding about this subject. I shall, to the best of my ability, attempt to provide a reasonably more cogent explanation.

SHIITE

Assad is President, and is Alawite. This is a rather obscure sect that is nominally Shiite. This explains why native Hezbollah and that coming out of Lebanon is being supported by Iran, which is also Shiite. Thanks to “BO”s inaction, Assad forces regrouped and counterattacked. They are trying to clear a corridor from Damascus through Homs to the Alawite-controlled coast and port of Tartus, which contains a Russian naval base. Joining the fray are Hezbollah pouring into Syria from Lebanon and Iraq, along with native Hezbollah supported by Iran. Iranian Revolutionary Guard are also present fighting alongside the Assad forces.

SUNNI

For the most part, these are the major opponents of Assad. However, it would simplistic and really, really wrong to cast this civil war as simply a Sunni/Shiite conflict. Turkey-backed Sunni fighters have crossed the border to support native Sunni groups. Support might (note carefully this qualification) be coming from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar.

KURDS

OK, these are hated by everyone. Kurds from Iraq and Turkey have crossed the borders into Syria to join forces with native Kurds. The great fear is that they will carve off pieces from Syria, Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Armenia to form an independent Kurdish country, so all of these sovereign countries are fighting the Kurds.

RUSSIA

Guh? Why would Russia care? Because Assad has allowed a naval base at Tartus, the only port in the Mediterranean that Russia has. They will do anything to keep it, so support Assad.

CHINA

Guh? Today's word is “oil”. Communist China needs it, and Syria will happily supply it, and will therefore quash any UN effort to interfere in Syria.

IRAN

For the IRGC, Syria is the perfect ammo dump for their effort to stomp Israel into the dirt. Therefore, they support Assad and wish his rule to last forever.

US

Oy...

IN CONCLUSION

It was my original goal to provide a quick 'n dirty, hopefully accurate cheat sheet to a complicated and confusing situation of great importance. Not. However, my main concern is not the eventual fate of Syria per se, but its effect on her neighbors. It threatens to destabilize the border with Turkey, Lebanon, and Golan Heights. Terrorists, paramilitary forces, and refugees have spilled over into neighboring countries. I am most concerned about the danger to Jordan. She has always been an ally to the US, not to mention one of the major suppliers of oil. Along with Saudi Arabia and Israel, Jordan has been an anchor for peace in the Middle East. It would not take much to overthrow the Hashemite monarchy and put Jordan under the control of the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood, a la Egypt. Not a good thing. I have a headache.